第一上海料螞蟻集團估值或超1.55萬億元 予阿里(09988.HK)目標價298.74元
第一上海近日發表報告表示,預計於今年下半年全球經濟持續復蘇,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)在持續發力新零售的同時,企業上雲趨勢明顯。此外,螞蟻集團上市在即,有望在科創板和港交所主板同步上市,上一輪估值為1,500億美元(約1.16萬億港元),最新估值有望超過2,000億美元(1.55萬億港元)。此外,阿里巴巴有望納入恆指,將進一步提升市場對公司的關注,該行預計2021財年至2023財年收入增速分別為31.87%、26.36%和19.94%,利潤增速分別為32.3%、30.01%和28.09%,予阿里巴巴目標價298.74元,維持「買入」評級。
該行表示,阿里巴巴於2021財年首財季實現收入1,537.51億元人民幣(下同)按年升34%,經營利潤347.05億元按年升42%,EBITDA為510.39億元按年升30%,非通用會計準則淨利潤為394.74億元按年升28%,並認為核心電商各項指標均超預期,拼多多無法衝擊阿里的基本盤。
第一上海指,天貓是GMV快速增長的主推力,佣金收入增幅不完全同步,受到低佣金的快消和消費電子產品以及支持部分商家的影響。第二是購買頻次和ASP均有所提升。第三是用戶增長雖慢於競爭對手,但基數龐大增長穩健(年度活躍買家7.42億,移動月活8.74億)。第四是淘系電商進展良好,特價版DAU已達4,000萬,直播GMV按年升100%。第五是公司的利潤率已恢復正常水平,打消投資人對市場競爭加劇和疫情影響的擔憂。
此外,據螞蟻集團上市資料顯示,於上市前,阿里巴巴集團對螞蟻集團持股32.65%。
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