李宁(02331.HK)：中报业绩逆势而上，继续打造可持续增长业务模式，维持“强烈推荐”评级
机构：东兴证券
评级：强烈推荐
事件：
2020 年上半年公司实现营业收入 61.81 亿元，同比下降 1.2%；扣除一次性损益的净利润 6.83 亿元，同比增长 21.7%，业绩增长超市场预期。报表整体稳健，增长有质量。
毛利率稳健，费用控制出色，带来业绩逆势增长。公司的收入、终端流水，韧性十足在行业内表现突出。同时，流水的恢复趋势明显，2020Q2 流水降 幅收窄至单位数，Q3 至今继续收窄至低单位数下降。从品类看，公司近几年比较强势的运动时尚是维持强韧性的重要力量，上半年运动时尚品类流水实现 12%增长。业绩方面，毛利率维持平稳，公司上半年 ASP（产品单价）提升了低双位数，有效的对冲了打折的情况，毛利率仅下滑 0.2。费用端严格控制费用，疫情后公司重新评估了公司的各项费用，上半年销售费用和管理费用下降了 2.4 个百分点，最终带来 2 个点利润率的提升。
运营资金效率高，资产负债表质量高，增长有后劲。资金状况：公司的运营资金状况持续改善，上半年平均运营资金总额下降 7%，占营业收入的比例同比下降 1 pct.。经营活动产生的现金流保持净流入，为 4.79 亿元人民币。净现金同比去年同期增加 10.37 亿元，达到 57.62 亿元。强劲的现金让公司更好的应对疫情常态化，也让公司有资金去争取疫情后市场的反弹。存货状况：公司的存货金额较去年同期上升 14%，渠道存货亦有渠道存货增长了低双位数，结合行业情况，库存状况合理，同时也表明公司下半年去库存任务仍存在，但压力可控。
扬长补短逻辑继续演绎，公司打造可持续发展业务模式。“扬长”显效，公司品牌力、产品力提升明显，未来看好公司在高端市场的份额提升。联席CEO 入驻后，公司的“补短”工作提速，公司未来在商品经营、库存管理、店铺运营、全渠道、成本管理以及组织架构方面的效率都有提升空间，为公司盈利能力的持续上行提供了底层保障。
盈利预测与投资评级：继续看好公司下半年毛利平稳和费用下行，以及疫情后的明后年的复苏。预计公司 2020-2022 年净利润分别为 16.40、21.18、27.57 亿元人民币，对应 EPS 为 0.66、0.85、1.1 元，对应 PE 分别为 39.9、30.89、23.73 倍，维持“强烈推荐”评级。
风险提示：国内疫情反复，消费持续疲软，行业竞争加剧。
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