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教育行业半年度策略:疫情后周期,量价新逻辑,给予“买入”评级
格隆汇 07-21 16:06

机构:浙商证券

评级:买入

1、下半年教育板块股价走势展望:乐观(跑赢大市)

我们看好在线K12教育景气上行强者恒强,线下职业培训龙头复苏高弹性,稳就业扩学额增厚民办高教业绩,低估值优质资产修复反弹的相关机会。

推荐组合:1)高增长趋势向上:新东方在线(1797.HK)、跟谁学(GSX.N);2)线下龙头复苏弹性:中国东方教育(0667.HK)、中公教育(002607.SZ);3)稳增长高确定性:中教控股(0839.HK)、中国科培(1890.HK)、希望教育(1765.HK);4)低估值业绩修复:枫叶教育(1317.HK)、睿见教育(6068.HK)。

2、下半年行业经营情况展望:

上半年行业基本经营情况:线上培训疫情免费课招生提量效能显著,线下培训业态收入确认延后H1短期承压;学历制高教受疫情等外部环境影响小,内生成长确定性高,稳就业政策学额提升亮眼,进一步增厚业绩。

下半年经营情况与上半年相比情况:1)线上春季暑假免费/低价流量持续转化,量价齐升推动景气高增长;2)线下职业培训校区迅速复课招生,龙头有望率先受益反弹,且经济不确定性大环境消费者对价格敏感性降低,量价齐升复苏量级或超预期;3)高职扩招提学额政策支持,优质民办高教集团有望率先进入提价通道;4)疫情不改民办国际教育中长期需求,优质品牌有望迎来业绩修复。

3、有别于市场的认识

我们对于线下业态恢复速度与量级更为乐观,看好龙头复苏弹性。

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