联发科(2454.TW)：5G产品力跃进，然周期力度或弱于预期，首次覆盖给予“持有”评级，目标价371新台币
机构：广发证券
评级：持有
目标价：371新台币
核心观点：
全球领先的手机芯片公司。联发科成立于 1997 年 5 月，核心业务包括 行动运算(手机芯片)、成长型产品(物联网、ASIC、STB 芯片、模拟芯 片等)与成熟型产品(功能手机芯片、电视芯片等)。依 2019 年前三季营 收排名为全球第四大半导体芯片厂。公司在智能电视、语音助理和手机 芯片具有领先地位。进入 5G 时代，关注其 5G 天玑系列芯片的发展。
5G SoC 产品力跃进，台积电先进制程助力。联发科过去在 4G 与高通 有相当的落后，然而在 5G 时代产品时程和产品性能均不输高通，逻辑 在于公司策略性专注 Sub-6Ghz 频段的研发和台积电 7nm 工艺。与其 他晶圆代工厂相比，台积电的产品质量高，量产时程早。根据台积电的 指引，5nm 和 3nm 分别将于 2020 年和 2021 年开始生产，有利于联 发科的产品规划。
5G 芯片的产品周期力度或弱于预期。(1) 根据中国移动和中国信息通 信研究院的数据，5G 手机的激活数明显低于出货数; (2) 测算联发科 于 2020 年的 5G 市场规模 7100 万颗(表 12)，再考虑竞争者如高通和 三星，达到市场预期有相当难度; (3) 当前机种价格配置不利于联发科， 系因主要品牌 OPPO 的 Realme X50，定价 2499 人民币，远低于 Reno 3 (天玑 1000) 和 Reno 3 Pro (高通 765G)，由于规格相近，预期需求 将往 Realme X50 倾斜; (4) 联发科芯片品牌的认同度仍待建立，即便 公司对天玑 1000 的品牌定位高，规格亦优于高通 765G，OPPO 仍将 天玑 1000 配置于较低价格的 Reno 3; (5) 综上所述，迭加手机品牌持 续压低 5G 售价和高通的竞争，预期芯片价格呈压。
盈利预测与投资建议。我们预测 19/20 年归母净利润为新台币 232 亿 /328 亿元，同比+12%/+41%。参考历史平均估值，给予公司 18 倍 20 年市盈率，合理价值为新台币 371 元/股，首次覆盖，给予“持有”评级。
风险提示。需求弱于预期，新产品延后、5G 渗透不及预期，同业竞争。
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