批零贸易业大消费行业2020年投资策略：消费行业的小龙头时代
机构：国泰君安
本报告导读：
消费进入下半场，2020年市场热点可能会从大龙头走向小龙头，重点关注行业需求红利仍在、竞争格局逐渐清晰的小龙头企业。
摘要：
投资建议：①从宏观层面看，消费已全面上升至国家战略高度，成为经济增长核心驱动力；②经济下行压力下，预计未来整个消费增速会变得更加平稳，增长的核心驱动力逐渐从投资驱动，变为多因素共同驱动（人均可支配收入、财富分化效应、低线城市消费升级等）；③2020年大消费行业的投资主线可概括为：供给看效率、需求看红利，市场热点可能会从大龙头逐步走向小龙头。我们协同九大消费行业（食品饮料、商贸零售、家电、农业、轻工、社服、汽车、纺服、传媒）分析师，精选出28只消费品小龙头企业。
目前大消费行业主要存在三大市场分歧。消费白马是否估值偏高、机构“抱团取暖”是否会瓦解、科技股崛起是否会导致消费股崩盘，目前市场担忧主要集中于这三点。我们认为，大消费行业进入下半场后，估值体系会从PE向DDM切换，以前是给“增长”估值，未来是给“竞争优势”估值，竞争优势稳固、业绩稳健增长的消费龙头估值水平是有支撑的。消费属于长周期的产业投资逻辑，如果不出现持续的业绩低于预期或者极端的外部事件，“抱团”现象很难打破，科技股的崛起并不会导致消费股崩盘，但可能会影响超额收益。
从资产配置的角度解读大消费行业。我们回顾了美国、英国、日本股市，发现大消费行业是盛产长牛股的“摇篮”，这些消费品公司不仅成功穿越了多个经济周期波动，还为投资者带来了惊人的超额回报。从资产配置角度而言，消费行业β系数更低，更受大资金青睐，无风险利率缓慢下行的大背景下更是如此。同时，MSCI第三次提升A股纳入比例，反映出海外资金“长期做多中国、加仓大消费”的信心。
九大消费行业2020年展望。A.供给看效率：伴随中国经济进入挤压式竞争时代，经营效率高、竞争优势强的龙头企业，可以挤压中小企业市场份额来获得成长；B.需求看红利：三四线城市的人口红利还在继续，这些城市人口基数大、收入增长快、边际消费倾向高，为美妆、免税、体育、休闲娱乐、户外运动、白酒、零食等细分领域带来巨大的发展机遇。在投资标的方面，我们更看好消费小龙头企业：①从增长价值角度，随着中国步入第三消费社会，个性化、品质化、多样化消费成为主旋律，众多细分领域的小龙头迎来增长提速期，而超级龙头（如白酒、家电等）市占率已经历一轮快速上行且市场预期充分；②相较于超级龙头，小龙头盈利增速更快，充分享受行业高增长红利及竞争优势加强带来的市场份额快速提升，估值性价比明显更高。
风险因素：经济增速放缓，中美经贸摩擦，行业竞争加剧的风险。
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