石药集团(1093.HK)：业绩持续稳健增长，重视创新管线价值，维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点
如非特殊说明，本报告货币单位为人民币元
收入增长27.5%，归母净利润增长24.0%，业绩符合预期。公司披露2019年3季报，收入167.61亿元（+27.5%），毛利润118.88亿元（+38.7%），归母净利润28.11亿元（+24.0%），高利润率创新药的强劲增长带动毛利率大幅提高至70.9%（+5.7pct），业绩符合预期。
抗肿瘤产品和恩必普增长靓丽，收入结构不断优化。前3季度创新药收入95.25亿元，同比增长51.9%，收入占比提升至57%（+9.2pct）。恩必普实现销售额40亿元，近3年CAGR约35%。抗肿瘤重点产品津优力/克艾力/多美素分别实现销售额约11/11/12亿元，肿瘤板块收入占比提升至约20%（约+9pct）。销售团队扩充+空白市场拓展，创新药有望维持强劲增长。普药收入38.62亿元（+6.0%），考虑集采和医保调整带来的增长以及销售团队调整完成，预计2020年普药增长将显著提速。维生素C收入15.96亿元（+15.3%），抗生素收入7.15亿元（-17.2%），其他收入10.63亿元（+8.2%）。公司收入结构不断优化。
研发投入大幅增加，重视创新管线价值。公司研发费用15.01亿元（+64.0%），占制剂收入比例12.2%。通过自研和引进，公司目前在研产品中创新药100余项，其中大分子创新药50余项，小分子创新药40余项。重磅新型制剂产品两性霉素B胆固醇硫酸脂复合物、米托蒽醌脂质体、伊立替康脂质体；创新药PI3K抑制剂、CD20单抗、RANKL单抗等产品有望于未来1-2年获批，助力公司持续稳健成长。
盈利预测与投资建议：公司业绩持续靓丽，在研创新品种不断丰富，研发成果转化值得期待。预计19-21年收入增速25%/22%/21%，归母净利润增速23%/22%/22%，EPS为0.72/0.88/1.08港元/股，当前股价对应PE28/23/19x。采用DCF方法得到公司合理价值为23.38港元/股，对应20年PE26x，21年PE22x，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：行业政策风险；临床进展不达预期
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