腾讯控股(0700.HK)19Q3业绩点评：游戏占比持续下降，小程序及全球化是亮点，维持“买入”评级
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
腾讯公布19Q3业绩。公司实现营收972亿元，YoY+21%；归母净利润204亿元，YoY-13%；non-IFRS归母净利润244亿元，YoY+24%。
◆游戏持续占比下降，收入结构更多元，IFRS归母净利润下滑因去年同期美团投资收益影响。1）在收入端：金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长36%至268亿元，占总收入比28%（QoQ+2pct），已接近游戏的29%;增值服务收入同比增长15%至506亿元；广告收入同比增长13%至184亿元；2）在利润端：IFRS净利润包含非现金投资收益，18Q3美团上市增益较多，高基数下19Q3有所下滑；non-IFRS归母净利同比增长24%，体现业务本身成长依然稳健。
◆金融科技与企业服务已成为最重要的收入增长点。1）Q3云服务高速增长。C2B产业互联网驱动行业数字化需求，带来Q3云服务收入同比增长80%至47亿元；2）金融科技收入约221亿元同比增长29%：用户活跃度与交易量增加驱动收入增长，规模效益带来利润率提升。
◆游戏全球化战略值得关注，广告或将回暖。1）19Q3网络游戏收入286亿元，同比增长11%（QoQ+3pct）。其中海外Q3收入近30亿，贡献游戏收入占比超10%。《PUBGMobile》使得公司IP开发实力广受认可，《CODMobile》标志公司跻身全球顶尖开发商之列；后续还将通过与Nintendo合作开发美国主机游戏市场；2）Q3社交广告同比增长32%（QoQ+4pct），媒体广告同比下滑28%。10月后播出环境已出现边际宽松，预计Q4广告将逐步回暖；“企鹅号”内容中台推送短视频的精准度与播放量提升，有助于媒体广告库存增加。
小程序日活超3亿，商业化能力逐渐提高。1）微信及Wechat合并月活跃用户数达11.51亿，同比增长6%，小程序日活跃用户数超过3亿；2）小程序商业化表现提升：小程序交易（中长尾小程序日均商业交易笔数同比增加超过一倍）和小程序广告方面表现提升。
◆重申“买入”评级。公司游戏业务收入占比持续下降，业务呈现多元化。其中，云业务高速增长，金融业务具有显著的规模效益是未来看点，广告业务或逐步回暖，而递延收入创新高将在未来释放。维持公司19/20/21年收入预测3,948、4,943、5963亿元人民币，non-IFRS净利润分别为990、1,333、1,559亿元；维持“买入”评级。
◆风险提示：宏观经济增速下行、流量红利见顶、竞争风险、估值压力
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