中金公司最新研究報告分析了兩種可能的經濟情景及其對美聯儲貨幣政策的影響。在第一種情景下，假設美國與貿易夥伴的談判未能取得實質性進展，導致90天後美國仍維持較高關稅率。這種情況下，收入效應將佔據主導地位，經濟需求走弱可能促使美聯儲從7月開始實施降息政策，預計全年累計降息幅度可能達到100個基點。然而，這種"衰退式"降息雖然來得較早，但反映了經濟基本面的惡化，反而可能對風險資產產生壓制作用。在第二種情景下，如果談判取得成果，關稅得以降低，替代效應將成爲主導因素。這種情形下，需求衝擊相對溫和，但通脹壓力更具持續性，可能導致美聯儲推遲寬鬆政策，僅在12月進行小幅降息。中金公司指出，儘管第一種情景下貨幣寬鬆政策實施更早，但由於其背後的經濟衰退風險，可能對市場產生負面影響。

On April 23, CICC's research report considered two scenarios. In the first scenario, if the negotiations between the United States and its trading partners lack substantial progress, and the effective tariff rate in the U.S. remains high after 90 days, the income effect would dominate. This could lead to weaker economic demand, prompting the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates from July, with a cumulative reduction of up to 100 basis points for the year. In the second scenario, if the negotiations yield results and tariffs are reduced, the substitution effect would dominate, resulting in a relatively mild demand shock. However, inflationary pressures would be more persistent, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's easing pace, with only a slight rate cut in December for the entire year. For the market, although monetary easing would come earlier in the first scenario, this "recessionary" rate cut reflects a deterioration in economic fundamentals, which could instead suppress risk assets.

格隆匯4月23日｜中金公司研報認爲，考慮兩種情形，一種是美國與貿易夥伴的談判缺乏實質性進展，90天後美國有效關稅率仍然很高，此時收入效應主導，經濟需求走弱或促使美聯儲從7月份開始降息，全年累計降息幅度或達100個基點。另一種情形是談判取得成果，關稅降低，替代效應主導下需求衝擊相對溫和，但通脹壓力更具持續性，美聯儲或延遲寬鬆步伐，全年僅在12月小幅降息一次。對市場而言，儘管第一種情形下貨幣寬鬆來得更早，但這種“衰退式”降息反映的是經濟基本面惡化，反而會對風險資產形成壓制。

Gelonghui, April 23 - On April 21, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed that Hainan Junda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Junda Shares") has passed the main board listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Huatai International, CMB International, and Deutsche Bank are its joint sponsors. Junda Shares is a leading professional photovoltaic cell manufacturer, focusing on the research, development, production, and sales of high-efficiency photovoltaic cells. It holds a competitive position in mainstream photovoltaic cell fields such as N-type TOPCon cells through research and innovation and key technologies. It is also one of the world's largest professional manufacturers of N-type TOPCon cells, with significant technological and market advantages. In terms of technological research and development, the company continuously innovates. Its N-type TOPCon cells apply half-cell edge passivation and wave back field technology, achieving an average mass production conversion efficiency of over 26% in 2023. This key indicator is expected to increase by 0.5 percentage points in 2024, with a bifacial rate of 90% and a non-silicon cost reduction of about 30% per watt, widening the cost gap with existing TOPCon capacities in the industry. Meanwhile, the company is actively laying out cutting-edge technologies such as HJT, perovskite tandem photovoltaic cells, and xBC to solidify its leading position in the cell segment. In terms of market layout, Junda Shares is vigorously expanding overseas capacity. By the end of the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, the company's overseas sales ratio recorded 23.9% and 58.1%, respectively, significantly increasing its overseas sales ratio, which has become a key driver of the company's performance. In addition to expanding the battery export business market, the company plans to invest in the construction of a 5GW high-efficiency battery capacity in Oman, further enhancing its global market battery product supply capability through capacity expansion overseas. The company will continue to promote project fundraising, design, construction, and other preparatory work based on changes in the overseas market. The project is planned to be completed and put into production by the end of 2025. With the implementation of U.S. equivalent tariffs, the global cost curve for U.S.-bound capacity has steepened, and the low-tax advantage of Oman's capacity for U.S. exports has increased its scarcity. After production, it may enhance the company's profit elasticity and continuously strengthen its global competitive advantage.

港交所於2025年4月21日公佈，海南鈞達新能源科技股份有限公司（以下簡稱"鈞達股份"）已通過主板上市聆訊。此次上市由華泰國際、招銀國際和德意志銀行擔任聯席保薦人。 作爲光伏電池製造領域的領軍企業，鈞達股份在N型TOPCon電池等主流技術領域具有顯著競爭優勢。該公司通過持續的技術創新，在2023年實現了N型TOPCon電池量產轉換效率突破26%的里程碑，並預計2024年將進一步提升0.5個百分點。同時，其雙面率達到90%，單瓦非硅成本降低約30%，顯著拉開了與行業TOPCon存量產能的成本差距。此外，公司還在積極佈局HJT、鈣鈦礦疊層光伏電池及xBC等前沿技術，以鞏固其在電池片環節的領先地位。 在國際市場拓展方面，鈞達股份取得了顯著進展。數據顯示，2024年四季度末和2025年一季度末，公司海外銷售佔比分別達到23.9%和58.1%。爲加強全球市場佈局，公司計劃在阿曼投資建設5GW高效電池產能，預計2025年底建成投產。該項目不僅將增強公司全球市場供應能力，還受益於阿曼的低稅率優勢，在美國對等關稅政策下，其輸美產能的稀缺性將進一步提升，有望增強公司的盈利彈性和全球化競爭優勢。

佩蒂股份於2025年4月23日在互動平臺迴應投資者提問時表示，公司正在密切關注關稅政策的變化，並承諾與所有投資者保持定期溝通。公司指出，其東南亞工廠目前並未承擔美國客戶的關稅。此外，新西蘭的寵物主糧生產線由於其稀缺性，正處於產能逐步提升的階段，預計在第二季度將顯著加快產能釋放，以滿足國內外高端主糧品牌的多樣化需求。這些產品也將被納入公司的自主品牌矩陣，涵蓋貓糧和狗糧。公司目前的工作重點之一是提高新建成項目的運營效率。

Gelonghui, April 23 - Pet's Best responded to investors on the interactive platform, stating that the company continues to pay close attention to tariff policies and will maintain regular communication with all investors. Currently, the Southeast Asian factory does not bear tariffs for U.S. customers. The pet food production line in New Zealand is a scarce capacity and is currently in a phase of ramping up production. It is expected that the production capacity will accelerate significantly in the second quarter, meeting the diverse needs of high-end pet food brands both domestically and internationally. It will also be integrated into the company's own brand portfolio, including both cat and dog food. Improving the operational efficiency of newly completed projects is currently an important task for the company.

格隆匯4月23日｜佩蒂股份在互動平臺回覆投資者稱，公司對關稅政策持續保持高度關注，並將和全體投資者保持常態化溝通，東南亞工廠當前沒有承擔美國客戶的關稅。新西蘭寵物主糧產線屬於稀缺產能，目前處於一個產能爬坡的狀態，預計二季度產能釋放明顯加快，可以滿足國內外高端主糧品牌的多樣化需求，同時也將進入公司自主品牌矩陣，貓糧和狗糧都有。提升新建成項目的運營效率是公司當前重要的工作任務。

2025年4月21日，蘭石集團與航天長徵化學工程股份有限公司在北京簽署了戰略合作協議。此次合作將重點圍繞六大領域展開，包括煤氣化技術、特種閥門研發、固廢制氫工藝、生物質資源化利用、高溫高氯耐腐蝕材料開發以及綠色氫冶金裝備的研發與製造。雙方將通過聯合技術攻關和市場協同開發，致力於推動我國能源環保領域的低碳轉型和高質量發展，爲行業注入新的活力。

On April 21, the signing ceremony of the strategic cooperation between Lanzhou LS Group and Aerospace Long March Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Aerospace Engineering Company") was held in Beijing. The two parties will focus on six major areas: coal gasification, special valves, solid waste hydrogen production, biomass resource utilization, development of high-temperature and high-chlorine corrosion-resistant materials, and research and manufacturing of green hydrogen metallurgy equipment. They will jointly advance key technology breakthroughs and market collaborative development, striving to inject new momentum into the low-carbon transformation and high-quality development of China's energy and environmental protection sectors.

格隆匯4月23日｜4月21日，蘭石集團與航天長徵化學工程股份有限公司（簡稱“航天工程公司”）戰略合作簽約儀式在北京舉行。雙方將聚焦煤氣化、特種閥門、固廢制氫、生物質資源化利用、高溫高氯耐腐蝕材料開發、綠色氫冶金裝備研發及製造六大領域，聯合推進關鍵技術攻關與市場協同開發，努力爲我國能源環保領域低碳轉型和高質量發展注入新動力。

1. On April 23rd, according to the news from Glonhui, on April 21st, the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) and the Sichuan Provincial Government signed a strategic cooperation agreement in Chengdu. According to the agreement, both parties will actively seize strategic opportunities such as the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, further deepen scientific and technological innovation collaboration, strengthen the aviation industry chain, enhance industrial-financial and talent cooperation, and jointly promote the construction of a modern aviation industry system and the high-quality development of Sichuan.

2025年4月21日，四川省政府與中國航空工業集團在成都達成戰略合作。此次合作旨在把握成渝地區雙城經濟圈建設的歷史機遇，通過深化科技創新協同、強化航空產業鏈、加強產融結合與人才交流等多維度合作，共同推進現代航空工業體系建設，助力四川經濟高質量發展。

2025年4月23日，創益通通過深交所互動平臺發佈信息稱，其研發的112Gbps高速背板連接器產品主要面向5G通信領域。目前，該產品仍處於研發階段，尚未實現規模化生產。

Gelonghui, April 23｜Chuangyitong stated on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange interactive platform that the company's 112Gbps product is a high-speed backplane connector, primarily used in the 5G communication field, and it has not yet entered the mass production stage.

格隆匯4月23日｜4月21日，中國航空工業集團與四川省政府在成都簽署戰略合作協議。根據協議，雙方將積極搶抓成渝地區雙城經濟圈建設等戰略機遇，進一步深化科技創新協同，建強航空產業鏈，加強產融和人才合作，共同推動現代航空工業體系建設和四川高質量發展。

格隆匯4月23日｜創益通在深交所互動平臺上表示，公司112Gbps的產品爲高速背板連接器，主要應用於5G通訊領域，且目前尚未進入批量生產階段。

Gelonghui, April 23 - According to a research report by Guojin Securities, the external tariff environment is rapidly changing. Guojin Securities believes that the pharmaceutical sector possesses both strong risk resistance and growth potential. The innovative drug sector faces very low actual geopolitical risks, while there are opportunities for domestic substitution in blood products, medical devices, and instruments. The left-side sector is expected to reverse after the first-quarter earnings report, and it is recommended to pay attention. Throughout the year, it is advised to continuously focus on the mainline of innovative drugs and generic drugs. Additionally, in the short term, due to tariff fluctuations, it is recommended to pay attention to the domestic substitution of blood products and scientific instruments and equipment. In the second half of the year, it is advised to focus on the left-side reversal. After the first-quarter earnings report, as performance gradually recovers and fundamentals improve, it is recommended to pay attention to the reversal of individual stocks in generic drugs, chain pharmacies, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine.

國金證券在最新研報中指出，面對快速變化的外部關稅環境，醫藥板塊展現出獨特的投資價值。該板塊不僅具備良好的抗風險能力，同時也具有顯著的成長潛力。特別是在創新藥領域，實際地緣政治風險較低，而血製品、醫療器械和科學儀器設備則存在顯著的國產替代機會。隨着一季報的發佈，部分左側板塊有望迎來反轉行情。全年投資主線建議持續關注創新藥和仿創藥，同時短期可重點關注受關稅波動影響的血製品和科學儀器設備國產替代機會。展望下半年，隨着企業業績逐步恢復和基本面修復，建議關注仿製藥、連鎖藥房、醫療器械和中藥等領域的個股困境反轉機會。

Gelonghui, April 23 - Zhongshui Co., Ltd. announced that the company held the ninth meeting of the ninth board of directors on April 22, 2025, and reviewed and approved the "Proposal on Terminating the Major Asset Restructuring," agreeing to terminate this major asset restructuring. The company had planned to acquire relevant shares of Zhuji Wenshenghui Self-owned Capital Investment Co., Ltd. held by Shanghai Yongrui Enterprise Management Partnership through cash payment. Upon completion of the acquisition, the company would cumulatively hold no less than 51% of the equity in Zhuji Wenshenghui, thereby becoming the controlling shareholder of Zhuji Wenshenghui and the indirect controlling shareholder of Beijing Huiyuan Food and Beverage Co., Ltd. However, as the equity of the transaction target remains frozen, there are restrictions on its transfer. The company intends to terminate this transaction and will reassess the feasibility of proceeding once the transfer restrictions are lifted.