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《大行》華泰證券升國壽(02628.HK)目標價至26元 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 08-29 10:45
華泰證券發表報告指,國壽(02628.HK)上半年業績每股盈利1.45元人民幣,按年提升6.9%,主要因為所得稅費用大幅減少,稅前利潤實際按年下降11.5%。中期股息按年增長19%,快於利潤增長速度。新業務價值可比口徑下按年增長20%,穩步增長。投資表現略遜於上年,年化淨/總投資收益率分別下降0.25/0.3百分點至2.78%/3.29%。該行預計新業務價值將保持增長韌性,維持「買入」評級。 報告指,國壽淨資產較年初增加2.8%,EV較年初增加5.5%,表現穩健。國壽負債端折現率未平滑,在上半年利率波動過程中,資產負債匹配較好,對淨資產擾動較少。該行估計上半年年化ROE為15.8%,處於歷史較好水平。 考慮到投資影響,該行調整國壽2025年、2026年、2027年每股盈利預測至3.20元、3.31元及3.75人民幣,調整幅度-3.0%/12.5%/13.8%。考慮到較好的增長勢頭,調高了新業務價值增速預期,並上調基於國壽A/H股目標價至49人民幣和26港元,前值目標價為48人民幣和20港元。(ha/W)~
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