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郭思治:大市再上創月內新高 但氣氛並不熾熱
阿思達克 06-05 09:06
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨日(4日)再進一步稍創月內之新高,恆指昨早市先輕微高開13點至23,499點,其後曾略為拉鋸至23,481點,由於沽壓並不明顯,加上維穩買盤又再滲著湧現,故整個大市卒開始緩步上升至23,716點方漸受規限,即其時恆指已再創月內之新高,相對本月低位為2日之22,668點計,即月內之波幅已略擴闊至1,048點,由於一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於三個交易日之內,加上1,048點之波幅亦該不能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,定必有更大之波幅點出現,從而擴闊月內之波幅以滿足所需,同時亦能拉闊月內高低位之距離以符合慣性之要求,恆指最後報收23,654點,較上日升141點,全日總成交金額為2,126億元。 傳統而言是五窮六絕七翻身,但從5月大市之表現看該不算窮,因恆指是由2日之低位22,058點升至21日之高位23,917點,即月內之上升波幅為1,859點,到6月份,照計亦不該絕,由於本月低位為2日之22,668點,即是說,只要恆指在6月餘下之交易日,不會跌穿22,668點的話,則大市該可續維持先低後高之形態,假如本月大市之波幅有約1,500點至1,800點,以低位為2日之22,668點計,恆指已可上望24,168點至24,468點,而傳統而言,如恆指於月初出現低位,而先低後高之形態不變,則高位多會在月內之中旬或之後才出現,當然,首要之條件是恆指必需持續穩守於10天線(約在23,426點左近)之上,此點極為重要。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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