郭思治:大市昨曾一度跌穿50天線
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已開始步入6月份之上旬,承接上週五(30日)之跌勢,大市昨日(2日)再進一步受壓,且恆指更一舉跌穿23,000點及50天線(約在22,737點左近),恆指昨早市先低開246點至23,043點,其後曾略爲後抽至23,083點,但由於買盤不繼,加上零碎沽壓又不斷滲着涌現,故整個大市卒開始逐步回落,而恆指更一度大跌621點至22,668點方漸見喘定,而從走勢上看,大市較關鍵之支持已順勢退守至100天線(約在22,145點左近),由於昨天是6月份首個交易日,故本月大市之形態仍未現,但照目前之市勢看,如沽壓持續,大市於6月上旬可能會先反覆試底,恆指最後報收23,157點,較上日跌131點,全日總成交金額爲1,452億元。
拉闊一點看,大市自3月19日高位24,874點開始之調整,至4月9日低位19,260點止計,在短短3周內,恆指累積之跌幅已達5,614點,其後大市出現反彈,而由4月9日低位19,260點開始之回升,至5月21日高位23,917點止計,經過逾六週之上升,恆指累積之升幅爲4,657點,相對5614點之跌幅計,即大市已反彈跌幅之82.9%,論升幅確已不算小,從技術上看,大市雖曾一度於5月21日高見23,917點,但成交金額卻持續偏疏,在動力不配之下,大市之升勢不但會漸受規限,且一旦沽壓再現,整個大市該會漸陷反覆不明之中,面對目前之困局,投資者最好先稍抱觀望,另外,任何投機性之短炒行動,當不宜過急及過勇,同時亦需做好一切風險管理。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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