大摩料美元將貶值9% 歐元、日圓及瑞郎成贏家
大摩發表報告,預計在減息及經濟增長放緩下,到明年年中美元將跌至新冠疫情期間的水平,美匯指數將低見91,下跌約9%。由於貿易爭端對美元帶來壓力,這將加劇近期美元跌勢,利率及貨幣市場已開始呈現持續的顯著勢頭,預示美元大幅走低,孳息率曲線大幅陡峭化。
大摩預計,美元疲弱的最大贏家將是歐元、日圓及瑞郎,相信歐元兌美元明年將從目前的1.13左右升至1.25左右。而英鎊在套利活動以及英國承受較低的貿易緊張風險下,兌美元可能從1.35升至1.45。日圓則可能從約143升至130兌一美元 。
大摩稱,到今年底十年期美債孳息率將跌至4%,而隨著聯儲局減息175個點子,明年十年期美債孳息率將出現更大的跌幅。
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