郭思治:大市已正式下試20,000點之支持
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已身處12月份之中旬,而直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先低而後高,恆指暫是由3日之低位19386點升至10日之高位21,070點,即在短短6個交易日內,恆指已急升1,684點,由於升勢略偏促,故大市於高臺稍見回吐,期間恆指亦不斷反覆穿梭於50天線(約在20,271點左近)之間,但有一點需指出,只要恆指能持續緊扣着50天線,即不用擔心大市會有明顯逆轉,只是在動力不足之下,大市暫仍缺一股欲上衝之動力,另外,以1,684點之波幅計似已不算小,或已可滿足月內之所需,但由於一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於6個交易日之內,故從理論上看,在本月餘下之交易日,或會有更大之波幅點出現,從而拉闊月內高低位之距離以符合慣性之要求。
至於短期後市在先低後高之形態主導下,恆指能否試頂或破頂,不妨參考移動線方面之表現,而直到目前一刻止計,各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲50天線(約在20,271點左近),10天線(約在19,977點左近),20天線(約在19,712點左近),100天線(約在19,056點左近)及250天線(約在17,886點左近),單從技術上看,只要恆指能穩守在50天線之上,論形勢當有利於候機試頂,問題是大市之動力能否配合,惟如恆指一旦反覆於50天線之下,則其時大市不但漸擺脫試頂之趨勢,且一旦沽壓稍作主動,大市可能會稍下試20,000點及10天線之支持。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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