郭思治:大市反覆並再稍跌近100天及50天線
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨日(23日)仍持續處急升後之消化及整固中,由於恆指暫仍緊扣着20,000點附近,且亦持續穩企於各組平均移動線之上,故整個大市技術上該屬急升後之整固中,恆指昨早市先高開103點至19,881點,其後一直反覆拉鋸於20,044點至19,783點之間,由於方向不明,故市內充滿觀望氣氛,加上農曆新年已近,受大節將至所影響,投資者之戰意似不高,或者較明朗之市勢需待2月初旬才能見到,恆指最後報收19,700點,較上日跌78點,全日總成交金額爲1,485億元。
有一點需留意,去年12月10日,恆指早市先高開655點至21,070點、其後在沽壓一面倒主導下急跌至20,308點方見喘定,最後報收於20,311點,而當日之成交金額爲2,475億元,從走勢上看,當日大市是由頭跌到尾,且成交金額亦不算少,即是說,被?綁之蟹貨該不少,故大市一旦升至此區域,沽壓該會不小,大市如欲突破此區域,成交金額必需明顯增加,因動力如不相配,大市之升勢該會漸受規限。
另外,恆指能否續穩守於各組平均移動線之上亦頗關鍵,目前各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲100天線(約在19,685點左近),50天線(約在19,677點左近),20天線(約在19,620點左近),10天線(約在19,506點左近)及260天線(約在18,223點左近),大市如欲稍後再作進一步之推升,恆指必需穩守於上述五組平移動線之上,此乃升市之首要條件,另外,大市之交投能否再見暢旺亦相當重要,因動力如未能配合,大市很難作進一步之突破。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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