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郭思治:大市在先高後低之形態下續試底
阿思達克 01-13 09:33
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已開始步入1月份之中旬,而經過周來之一輪反覆急跌後,本月大市之形態已初呈先高而後低,恆指暫是由2日之高位19,932點跌至10日之低位19,036點,即短短7個交易日內,月內之波幅已有896點。首先,一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於兩個交易日之內,加上896點之波幅亦該不能滿足月內所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,理論上該有更大之波幅點出現,從而擴闊月內之波幅以滿足所需,同時亦能拉闊月內高低位之距離,以符合慣性需求。從目前大市之情況看,由於恆指已漸跌離2日之高位19,932點,故只要先高後低之形態不變,大市進一步往下尋月內新低之機會似較大。 再看移動線方面之表現,目前各組常用平均移動線排列由上而下爲50天線(約在19,865點左近),20天線(約在19,782點左近),10天線(約在19,630點左近),100天線(約在19,504點左近),及250天線(約在18,099點左近)。由於買盤薄弱,加上零碎沽壓又不斷滲着涌現,故目前恆指已相繼跌穿50天線,20天線,10天線及100天線。即是說,現時移動線方面之支持已退守至250天線。但從技術上看,目前較關鍵的支持該爲去年11月26日之低位19,054點,因爲此據點一旦有失,即表示大市自去年10月7日之高位23,241點開始之調整,技術上仍在延續中,而且更可能會漸發展成新一輪之中期跌浪。大市如欲擺脫反覆續尋底之弱態,首要之條件是恆指必需先成功重越100天線並穩守其上。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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