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郭思治:大市急跌並似欲下試10天線
阿思達克 03-21 09:04
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市經過連續急升4天後,昨日(20日)略見反覆,恆指昨早市先輕微低開18點至24753點,由於高臺買盤卻步,加上伺高回吐之沽壓亦漸增,故整個大市卒進一步反覆急跌585點至24,186點方漸見喘定,其後雖略作技術性後抽,但在較保守之氣氛主導下,投資者多暫抱觀望,故整個反覆不明之市勢一直未見改善,單從走勢上看,昨天大市在回吐沽壓主導下,跌幅不但明顯,且恆指更漸跌近10天線(約在24,070點左近),此防線一旦失守,該代表大市已初步稍擺脫續尋頂之趨勢,其時之支持亦將退守至20天線(約在23,746點左近),恆指最後報收24,219點,較上日急跌551點,全日總成交金額爲2,948億元。 拉闊一點看,大市自今年1月13日低位18,671點開始之中期升浪,至3月19日高位24,874點止計,經過逾9周之上升後,累積升幅已達6,203點,以一箇中期升浪計,升幅絕對不算小,故投資者在持貨續上望之餘,切記做好一切風險管理,慎防大市之中期升浪一旦結束,技術上可能會出現較明顯之調整,至於大市之中期升浪,何時會出現變化,不妨先睇緊10天線之支持,因大市如欲保持持續尋頂之趨勢,恆指必需持續穩守於10天線之上,此乃首要條件,另外,成交金額亦必需保持暢旺,以目前恆指已升近2022年2月10日之高位25,050點計,大市之成交金額必需保持在2,500億元或以上,因大市之交投一旦萎縮,即表示資金之入市態度已漸趨審慎,在動力不足之下,當需慎防大市會出現中期急升後之回吐及調整。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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