郭思治:大市已見突破 現目標先上望21,355點
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已開始步入2月份之中旬,而直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市在先低後高之形態主導下,恆指暫是由3日之低位19,764點升至7日之高位21,213點,即在短短5個交易日內,累積之上升波幅已達1,449點,由於一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於五個交易日之內,加上1,449點之波幅該未能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,理論上該有更大之波幅點出現,從而擴闊月內之波幅以滿足所需,同時亦能拉闊月內高低位之距離以符合慣性之要求,而從目前之市勢看,只要先低後高之形態不變,而動力亦能配合,大市進一步往上尋月內新高之機會似較大,再從小圖上看,大市目前之上望目標該爲去年12月10日之高位21,070點及11月8日之高位21,355點。
再看移動線方面之表現,目前各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲10天線(約在20,360點左近),100天線(約在19,917點左近),20天線(約在19,885點左近),50天線(約在19,818點左近)及250天線(約在18,379點左近),從走勢上看,只要大市能持續保持續尋頂之形態,估計20天線很快便會升越100天線,令移動線方面再亮另一個黃金交叉,往後再有50天線重越100天線之後,即表示移動線方面之排列將回復標準之升市模式,當然,成交金額能否保持暢旺至爲關鍵,因大市之動力如不相配,升勢定必受規限。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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