郭思治:大市昨在動力一般下明顯反彈
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,市場憧憬內地在兩會後有刺激經濟之政策出臺,故昨天(5日)大市出現頗明顯之反彈,而恆指亦伺機升越3日之高位23,405點,故本月大市之形態已扭轉成先低而後高,恆指昨早市先高開259點至23,200點,其後曾略爲拉鋸至23,090點,但由於沽壓並不明顯,加上維穩買盤又再涌現,故大市再作推升,而恆指亦順勢急升至23,636點方漸受規限,其後大市一直在上述波幅內拉鋸,單從技術上看,本月大市之形態不但已扭轉成先低而後高,且恆指亦再重越10天線(約在23,242點左近),故大市暫該已擺脫續試低位之威脅,惟在動力不配之下,技術上暫不能抱太多上望憧憬,恆指最後報收23,594點,較上日升652點,全日總成交金額爲2,586億元。
直到執筆一刻止計,本月恆指暫是由4日之低位22,547點升至5日之高位23,636點,即月內之波幅暫爲1,089點,由於一個月之高低位是不會同時出現於兩個交易日之內,加上1,089點之波幅亦該不能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,定必有更大之波幅點出現,從而擴闊月內之波幅以滿足所需,同時亦能拉闊月內高低位之距離以符合慣性之要求,惟有一點需指出,目前只是3月份之上旬,往後存在之變數仍大,故任何投機性之短炒行動,均不宜過急及過勇,同時亦需做好一切風險管理。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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