郭思治:大市之反覆只屬大幅急升後之正常回吐
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已身處2月份之中旬,而直到13日高位止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先低而後高,恆指暫是由3日之低位19,764點升至13日之高位22,523點,即在短短9個交易日內,恆指累積之升幅已有達2,759點,論幅度確已不算小,且升勢亦頗爲偏促,故高臺買盤之態度如稍見保守,定必引來伺高回吐之沽壓,而大市亦會出現較明顯之回調,但相對月內累積之升幅計,技術上暫只屬大幅急升後之正常回吐及消化而已,嚴格而言,只要恆指能持續穩守在10天線(約在21,274點左近)之上,小許反覆所帶出的問題該不大,而恆指於14日已再急升806點至22,620點,即再創月內之新高,惟需留意,恆指一旦在回調中觸及或跌穿10天線,則可能表示大市已漸擺脫不斷尋頂之趨勢,而大市自1月13日低位18,671點開始之小升浪,技術上已漸受規限。
再看移動線方面之表現,目前各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲10天線(約在21,274點左近),20天線(約在20,557點左近),100天線(約在20,144點左近),50天線(約在20,070點左近)及250天線(約在18,504點左近),從上述資料可見到,只要50天線於稍後再重越100天線,正表示各組平均移動線之排列已回覆正常之標準升市模式,單從技術上看,形態該有利於中期後市之發展,其時只要恆指能續穩守於10天線之上,而成交金額又能保持暢旺,論形勢,當有利於大市再進一步往上尋季內之新高。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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