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郭思治:大市稍見回升 但氣氛淡薄
阿思達克 03-28 09:24
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,昨天(27日)是即月期指轉倉高峯日,大市在維穩之買盤扶持下略見反彈,恆指早市先輕微高開60點至23,543點,其後曾略爲拉鋸至23,372點,但由於沽壓並不明顯,加上維穩買盤漸現,故整個大市卒開始緩步回升,而恆指亦一度上升382點至23,865點方漸受規限,惟高臺買意再見保守,故整個大市卒漸陷拉鋸中,而恆指亦持續徘徊於上述波幅之內,從技術上看,大市昨曾一度輕越20天線(約在23,778點左近),只是在動力不配之下,未能成功穩守其上,但只要恆指能緊扣着20天線,至低限度表示大市已漸擺脫進一步試低位之弱態,但並不代表大市技術上會有上衝之趨勢,恆指最後報收23,578點,較上日升95點,全日總成交金額爲2,396億元。 有一點需留意,恆指目前已連續三天反覆低收於10天線及20天線之下,且此兩組平均移動線亦開始掉頭回落,即是說,大市之走勢不但續見反覆,且表現亦漸呈欲試低位之趨勢,而所指的低位,暫該爲3月13日之低位23,198點,此據點一旦有失,即表示大市可能會進一步下試23,000點之大關,亦即是說,其時大市可能會回調中期升浪6,203點之31.8%(今年1月13日之低位18,671點升至3月19日之高位24,874點,共升6,203點,回調此升幅之31.8%,即恆指會下試22,902點)。 另外,大市之成交金額亦漸見萎縮,表示資金之入市態度已漸趨審慎,在動力不繼之下,只要零碎沽壓持續不斷涌現,整個大市將會續處反覆試底之弱態中,加上美國總統特朗普於4月2日開始大幅上調關稅、事件當會令整個金融市場受困擾,期間買盤保守,但沽壓卻持續涌現,故大市確暫難擺脫反覆續回軟之弱態,投資者目前宜暫抱觀望,而任何投機性之短炒行動,最好是先做好風險管理,同時亦不宜過急及過勇。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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