郭思治:大市再作反彈 但市內氣氛保守
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨日(14日)再進一步反彈,即技術上已呈5連升,恆指昨早市先高開449點至21,363點,其後再進一步上升603點至21,517點方漸受規限,由於高臺買盤態度漸見保守,加上零碎沽壓亦漸見滲着涌現,故大市開始略見反覆,惟跌勢並不明顯,而恆指亦持續拉據於上述波幅之內,由於大市去向不明,故市內充滿觀望氣氛,而交投亦因而續見偏疏,惟從技術上看,昨天大市已稍重越100天線(約在21,210點左近),即大市已初呈回穩訊號,只是中美關係仍未見紓緩及解決,故大市暫確欠缺進一步推升之藉口,恆指最後報收21,417點,較上日升502點,全日總成交金額爲2,533億元。
拉闊一點看,大市自3月19日高位24,784點開始之回調,由於恆指已相繼跌穿20天線(約在22,745點左近),50天線(約在22,716點左近),10天線(約在21,560點左近)及100天線(約在21,210點左近),且10天線亦已跌穿20天線及50天線,故整個大市目前技術上該已進入中期調整之形態中,而照目前之市勢看,整個反覆不明且帶軟之趨勢似會進一步延續至4月份之下旬,即是說,一日特朗普之對等關稅仍未能解決或紓緩,市場之投資信心亦難以恢復,惟筆者認爲,由於事件最後該沒有贏家,故定必需要通過談判去解決,問題只是特朗普能堅持多久而已,目前美股及美債急跌,加上物價持續急升,相信特朗普面對之壓力該不細,或者,在民間壓力下,特朗普之態度或會漸見改變,只是經過今次事件後,誠信已大打折扣。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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