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郭思治:大市明顯反覆 交投亦略見縮減
阿思達克 03-12 08:45
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨(11日)先大幅急跌後反彈,受美股急挫所累,恆指昨早市先大幅低開508點至23,274點,其後再進一步跌至23,238點方漸見喘定,由於沒有追沽壓力,加上維穩買盤漸增,故整個大市開始緩步回升,至午後更一度輕微倒升40點至23,823點,但在市場氣氛保守下,大市亦漸轉拉鋸,由於大市去向不明,故交投亦略見萎縮,恆指最後報收23,782點,較上日跌1點,全日總成交金額爲3,070億元。 近日大市之表現雖漸見反覆,惟目前各組平均移動線之排列仍暫屬標準升市模式,由上而下爲10天線(約在23,616點左近),20天線(約在23,171點左近),50天線(約在21,255點左近$,100天線(約在20,652點左近)及250天線(約在18,983點左近),從傳統經驗看,恆指一旦跌穿10天線及20天線,不但代表整個大市已漸擺脫不斷尋頂之趨勢,且在沽壓主導下,大市可能會漸陷中期升浪後之正常調整中,即是說,期間即使大市能偶作反彈,但在動力不足之下,亦只會屬於有波幅而無升幅,有反彈而無大升之技術性後抽而已。 大市自去年12月開始,形態上已屬先低而後高,去年12月恆指是由3日之低位19,386點升至10日之高位21,070點,即月內之波幅是上升1,684點,到今年1月,恆指是由13日之低位18,671點升至28日之高位20,337點,即月內之升幅是1,666點,到2月份,恆指是由3日之低位19,764點升至27日之高位24,076點,即月內是上升4,312點,到再到本月,大市能否維持上升之形態,當需視乎資金之入市態度而定。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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