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摩根大通:若免收港股通股息利得稅 四大內銀建行料最受惠
摩根大通發表報告指,彭博引述消息指證監會和國家稅務總局正在審查香港提交的一項計劃,免收港股通股息20%利得稅。該行相信,若計劃被採納,將對港交所成交量產生重大利好。除交易所外,經紀商和部分銀行股亦將受惠。摩通指,以30天移動平均線計算,港股日均成交額爲1,150億港元,幾乎與10年水平即1,060億港元持平。如果成交額上升1個標準差至1,410億港元,將對港交所的每股盈利產生11%的影響。由於H股與A股的稅後收益率差距將拉大,將有利銀行股,預計建行最受惠(建行A股股息回報5.7釐,但建行H股股息回報達8.3釐,即H股與A股股息差達2.6%,高行農行、中行及工行H股與A股股息差各爲1.8%、1.8%及1.9%)。就經紀商而言,中金、華泰證券和中信證券在港股交易量佔比較高,認爲若免收港股通股息利得稅將令到上述股票短期內表現出色。
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