瑞銀料MSCI中國指數今年具15%上行空間 企業每股盈利預測升10%
瑞銀全球投資銀行大中華研究部總監連沛(方土方)表示,該行現時保守預測MSCI中國指數企業估值今年可升5%,同時憧憬企業收入料升7%,每股盈利料升10%,考慮到現時MSCI中國指數市盈率爲8倍,與歷史平均有2個標準差,估值便宜有助吸引國際機構投資者,因此預期全年會有約15%上行空間。
瑞銀又預料,今年大宗商品價格將下滑,有助降低企業營運成本,帶動邊際利潤提升。連沛(方土方)憧憬中國房地產市場對經濟的影影響將減弱,市場氣氛可望改善,建設性看好港股市場發展,預期可能會跑贏A股市場。
他解釋,自去年第二季起外資於港股持倉已降至低位,預期美國聯儲局減息預期可引領資金迴流新興市場,港股可成爲主要受惠者,重點持倉互聯網,因在多輪監管下已超賣,預測科網企業今年每股盈利平均可錄23%增長。
至於A股市場方面,瑞銀證券中國股票策略分析師孟磊持正面樂觀看法,估計滬深300指數企業今年每股盈利可增長8%,較去年2%至3%加快,高於市場預期的持平增幅。他認爲,CPI及PPI反彈將帶動名義GDP增長,推動企業復甦,短期以價值股爲優先選擇,並看好增長股,同時以高股息作爲防守性持倉。
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