《大行報告》瑞銀降神華(01088.HK)評級至「沽售」 目標價下調至20元
瑞銀發表報告,預期今年中國煤炭供應,將較原先市場預期多出8,000萬噸,因此將今年動力煤價格預測,由每噸1,000元人民幣下調至900元人民幣,明年預測則由800元人民幣下調至700元人民幣。
該行認為,中國神華(01088.HK)合約銷售敞口帶來的盈利防守度較低,而高估值之下,亦較受煤價下跌打擊,盈利下行空間不容忽視,因此將評級由「中性」下調至「沽售」,目標價由23元下調至20元。今明兩年神華預測股息率只有9%,低於其他高息的H股同業。
報告指,煤價年初至今已跌約30%,相信會進一步下跌,而政策及公司損失引致減產的可能性不大,除非每噸價格跌至600元人民幣以下,否則料不會出現具有意義的減產。
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