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《大行報告》高盛憂房市刺激不足以緩解內房經營去槓桿及均價下行壓力 「認房不認貸」或致二手盤源激增
高盛發表研究報告,預期內地近期房貸寬鬆措施,以及四大一線城市的支援措施,將有助於恢復購房者信心,適度緩解家庭利息支付壓力,有利於第四季銷售超越季節性因素而回升。由於該些措施將推高家庭槓桿率,考慮到自2014年上一輪經濟低迷以來隨着家庭償債能力減弱,家庭槓桿率已經升高,該行憂慮有關措施所帶來的正面影響或難以長時間維持,不足以緩解內房經營去槓桿及均價下行壓力。 此外,該行指內地「認房不認貸」政策的一些短期副作用,或致二手盤源激增,但於宏觀挑戰下,潛在買家數量仍然不足。該行相信內地政府將由目前的「第一階段寬鬆」,即取消之前對購房、抵押貸款及房價的限制,逐步轉向「第二階段寬鬆」,認爲在新階段下,政府可能將更深入地利用自己的資產負債表,通過向購房者和開發商提供財政資源,以減輕房地產行業的去槓桿壓力。 在此預期下,該行認爲雖然內房業績令人失望,並顯示整個房地產行業持續虧損,但該行相信企業的資產負債表強勁,且獲得資本的公司將在未來幾年實現更早、更強勁的毛利率和增長復甦。行業中該行首選中海外(00688.HK),納入確信買入名單,同時對中國海外宏洋(00081.HK)、潤地(01109.HK)、中國金茂(00817.HK)、綠城中國(03900.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)、招商蛇口(001979.SZ)及保利發展(600048.SH)予以「買入」評級。
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