恆生維持本港今年經濟增長4%預測 下半年受利率及環球經濟放緩挑戰
恆生銀行經濟研究部主管兼首席經濟師薛俊昇表示,本港第二季經濟按年增長1.5%,低於市場預期的3.5%。按季比較,經濟於首季快速復甦5.4%後,於第二季收縮1.3%。經濟回調的主要原因大概與利率高企及外圍環境持續不明朗有關。
隨著美國聯儲局於上半年進一步加息,本港利率也逐步攀升,拖累反映投資的本地固定資本形成總額在首季錄得按年增長後,於第二季轉為下跌1%。環球經濟受利率高企影響而放緩,亦持續不利本港對外貿易的表現。本港貨品進出口貨量繼續錄得按年雙位數字的跌幅。另一方面,政府消費開支按年跌9.6%,可能因為今年消費券的金額較去年為低所致。不過,私人消費及反映旅遊業的服務業對外貿易則繼續復甦,支持本港經濟增長。
恆生銀行預期,利率高企及環球經濟放緩仍然是下半年本港經濟復甦的挑戰,但相信消費增長及旅遊業的復甦可以抵銷相關的不利影響。目前該行維持對今年本港經濟增長4%的預測。
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