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錯失科技股這波漲勢的投資者急忙轉向期權,設法迎頭趕上

計劃趕不上變化,美股投資者深有同感。隨着執着於科技股的市場可能與他們漸行漸遠,這些投資者正設法急起直追。 

納斯達克100指數自去年12月以來上漲31%,專業交易員和散戶都陷入長考,是否要調整對科技股的看法。一些已經採取行動的人中,有一些經理先前減持蘋果公司和其他六大科技股,減持幅度爲近三年來最多。交易所買賣基金(ETF)投資者也看走眼:過去五個月從Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1(股票代碼QQQ)撤出約30億美元,這是追蹤納斯達克100指數最大的ETF。

隨着七大科技巨頭今年的中位數漲幅爲44%——漲幅幾乎是標普500指數的五倍——有跡象表明,交易員急忙設法迎頭趕上。這在期權市場甚爲明顯,預期波動率與納斯達克100指數同步上升,看漲期權的成本飆升。

期權平臺SpotGamma創始人Brent Kochuba說,科技股存在錯失恐懼症。投資者明顯是在追漲。

納斯達克ETF看漲期權的需求正在激增。押注一個月內上漲10%合約的隱含波動率(衡量期權成本的指標)在過去一週從16躍升至19。與此同時,看跌期權的價格走勢相對溫和。

股票上漲時,預期波動率通常會下降,投資者傾向於使用期權來對衝下跌。這就是爲什麼納斯達克100指數和Cboe NDX波動率指數(代碼VXN) 的走勢通常相反。但由於投資者擔心錯過下一次大漲,兩者的走勢正以罕見的速度同步。

隨着納斯達克100指數上週上漲3.6%,其波動率指數上漲2.5。兩者走勢如此同步大漲先前只發生過四次,上一次是在2020年8月疫情期間引發的科技股飆升。

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