“高股息策略”重回視野，“央國企重估”機會或將貫穿全年
來源：戴康的策略世界作者：韋冀星、戴康
央國企估值重塑引領“高股息”重回投資者視野。我們在此前文章中持續提示強調，23年“央國企重估”機會或將貫穿全年，23年的主線三條線索之一“政策路線切換”的核心爲：“央國企重估+數字經濟”成爲寬信用“再加槓桿”的新抓手。近期“央國企重估”背景下，$中國移動(00941.HK)$、$中國電信(00728.HK)$有關進一步提升派息率的公告使得“高股息策略”成爲部分投資者重點關注的對象。
我們此前剖析過傳統高股息策略的本質：09.9以來，中證紅利全收益指數年化收益率能夠略微跑贏wind全A，但從相對跑贏區間來看，紅利全收益指數只有約一半的時間相對Wind全A佔優，且過去13年高股息率因子有效性並不高。同時高股息策略並不能相對偏股混合基金獲得更顯著的“低迴撤”和“低波動”特徵。
（1）傳統高股息策略存在股息陷阱，即以往的高股息並不能保證未來它也是高股息，這導致未來的股息再投資受到影響；
（2）傳統高股息還存在估值陷阱，即高股息策略的本質是深度價值股策略，企業的盈利端往往缺乏持續的增長，投資者不能獲得“與企業共同成長”的收益，這導致策略在資本利得方面容易錄得顯著的負向貢獻的同時，也難以實現真正“低波動、低迴撤”的特性。
我們通過“分紅意願”和“盈利能力”兩大維度，針對性地修復了兩大“病因”，並構建了包含100只A股的 “A股高股息100”基礎池和包含50只港股的“港股高股息50”股票池。而基於A股和港股的兩大策略均是持續佔優策略：不僅09年來年化收益在20%上下，能夠大幅跑贏相應基準指數和偏股混合基金指數，且最大回撤更低，還具有真高股息特性；同時，從策略相對Wind全A/ Wind全港的走勢來看，兩大策略的佔優區間也是不分牛熊，在過去13年能夠持續跑贏佔優。
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“央國企重估”機會或將貫穿全年，進一步構建“中特估值高股息策略”。構建完全由央國企構成的“中特估值高股息策略”，其也能夠實現“高收益+高股息+低迴撤”，且資金容納高。在“中國特色估值體系”推動之下，“中特估值高股息策略”不僅有望延續過去較爲突出的表現，同時有望能夠在央國企估值重估的beta加持下獲得更強的上行動力。
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風險提示：全球流動性惡化，國內復甦不確定性等。本文僅從策略角度提出相關標的，不代替廣發證券研發中心相關行業研究團隊觀點。
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