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期權大單 | 高盛看多蘋果,京東決戰拼多多
uSMART盈立智投 03-07 16:31

一、市場回顧

週一,美股三大指數衝高回落,道指四連漲,納指小幅收低。投資者準備迎接美聯儲主席鮑威爾的講話,以及美國非農數據,這兩件事都可能影響利率政策,也令市場承壓。

週一期權市場總成交量33,162,353張合約,環比大幅減少約22%。其中,看漲期權佔比51%,看跌期權佔比49%。

二、期權成交總量TOP10

期權交易的總量榜單上,蘋果超過特斯拉,排名個股期權的第一。週一蘋果高開,收盤漲1.85%,實現三連陽。活躍交易中,看漲期權的成交最多,月末到期CALL Option的行權價看高至205美元,可見有多頭已經躍躍欲試。

消息面上,$高盛(GS)$建議買入蘋果股票,爲近六年來的首次。高盛分析師 Michael Ng在最新的報告中表示,蘋果的安裝基礎增長、服務的長期增長以及新產品創新應該足以抵消產品收入的週期性逆風。與歷史市盈率和同行相比,蘋果的估值具有吸引力。

媒體彙編的數據顯示,Michael Ng是六年來第三位關注蘋果股票的高盛分析師。他的前任 Rod Hall 之前研究了蘋果股票近五年,並給予了蘋果“中性”或“賣出”評級。自高盛2017年上一次建議買入蘋果股票以來,蘋果股價已上漲了超過三倍。

Michael Ng對蘋果的新目標價爲199美元,距蘋果的最新收盤價有32%的上漲空間,並高於分析師平均預期的168.82美元。

異動榜單上,AMC院線、蘋果、阿裏巴巴、微軟、京東、特斯拉排名居前。

AMC院線週一跌超5%。財報顯示,AMC院線2022年Q4營收9.909億美元,同比下降15.3%;每股虧損爲0.14美元,上年同期虧損爲0.06美元。2022年全年收入爲39.1億美元,同比增長54.7%,每股虧損0.69美元。

值得一提的是,在美國特拉華州一家法院表示將於4月27日舉行初步禁令聽證會後,AMC院線備受期待的普通股與優先股之間的轉換可能需要比預期更長的時間。這家電影院運營商一直在推動重組其股權結構,本月計劃將優先股轉換爲普通股。然而,四月的聽證會被套利交易者視爲不利因素,因爲它在一對一掉期交易的時間點上造成了不確定性。

阿裏巴巴和京東均出現大單異動。京東周一漲近1%,阿裏巴巴則微幅收低。

3月6日,$京東(JD)$提前上線了“百億補貼”頻道,低價讓利。最先把百億補貼發揚光大的是拼多多,之後淘寶和京東跟進。但這次京東高調推出的百億補貼跟拼多多有非常大的不同。

京東更需要的是,以“百億補貼”來恢復商品的價格競爭力,刺激用戶下單,提高復購率。

不過,從市場反應來看,投資者對此燒錢打法的心態是比較謹慎的,從週一一天的走勢看,阿裏微跌、拼多多跌2%,京東漲1%,各家基本還是纏鬥的狀態,100億,不足以分出勝負。

總的來看,京東開啓“百億補貼”,短期將加大銷售費用的投入,毛利率亦受影響,利潤端承壓。長期由於相對更高的成本,盈利能力可能受損,高強度補貼恐難持續。

 

 

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