物管行業2022年中報綜述：業績分化加劇，央國企優勢凸顯
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信建投策略 作者：竺勁
核心要點：
行業整體業績增速與盈利能力下滑。2022年上半年24家重點物企合計實現營業收入848.4億元，同比增長34.5%，增速較2021年同期下降18.2個百分點；實現歸母淨利潤90.7億元，同比下滑4.6%，增速較2021年同期下降70.2個百分點。歸母淨利潤率由2021年上半年的15.1%下降至2022年上半年的10.7%，主要是由於綜合毛利率較去年同期下滑2.6個百分點至24.7%。
在管面積增速放緩，市場外拓成頭部物企面積主要來源。2022年上半年22家重點物企共實現在管面積46.8億方，較2021年底增長12.3%，增速較往年放緩；除去兩家未披露合約面積的物企外，20家物企共實現合約面積65.7億方，同比增長11.3%；規模增速的放緩導致原有斷層格局仍在。從我們重點跟蹤的7家頭部公司數據看，除碧桂園服務和華潤萬象生活由於有中大型併購，其餘5家市場外拓的佔比均超過50%，頭部物企業近年來不斷加強自身市場外拓能力建設。
營收質量持續下降，貨幣資金首次出現負增長。2022年上半年23家重點物企應收賬款佔收入比重持續上升，從2021年上半年的44.4%大幅提升至2022年上半年的59.5%，物企資金回收效率持續降低，多家公司經營現金流淨額/淨利潤的比例較2021年同期出現下滑。受此影響，行業整體貨幣資金首次出現下降，2022年上半年23家重點物企在手貨幣資金共計達到782.5億元，同比下降8.5%。
物企間分化明顯，央國企整體狀況優於民企。2022年上半年，23家重點物企中(不含金茂服務)的8家央國企背景的物企合計實現營業收入329.5億元，同比增長26.2%；實現歸母淨利潤33.8億元，同比增長14.9%，歸母淨利潤率基本穩定在10.3%。同期15家民營物企合計實現營業收入508.0億元，同比增長40.0%，增速較2021年同期下降25.7個百分點；歸母淨利潤55.2億元，同比下滑14.8%，歸母淨利潤率由2021年上半年的17.9%下降至2022年上半年的10.9%，下降了7.0個百分點。不僅是在業績上，央國企在ROE以及應收賬款佔比等數據上也明顯優於民企。
投資建議：我們看好央國企背景的物企隨着地產銷售復甦帶來的估值修復，推薦A股：招商積餘；港股：保利物業、中海物業、華潤萬象生活、濱江服務、越秀服務、建發物業等。
風險提示：房地產行業銷售持續不及預期；外拓競爭加劇導致物管公司毛利率下降；併購投後整合不及預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
