美聯:本港樓價料下試2019年低位 預計全年跌8%
美聯物業住宅部行政總裁(港澳)布少明表示,本港樓價跌勢未止,在市場信心失守下,跌幅有擴大趨勢。「美聯樓價指數」最新報162.05點,按周跌0.84%,連跌12周之餘,本週跌幅更創自2020年3月初,亦即是約兩年半以來的最大,全年樓價迄今已跌約5.57%。以現時樓價走勢,相信「美聯樓價指數」將下試2019年初低位158.25點。布少明認爲,由於疫情及經濟等利淡因素未減,如果月內未有利好消息刺激,相信樓價跌勢未止,料全年樓價將跌約8%。
布少明認爲,樓價跌幅擴大主要由四大原因觸發。第一是疫情有加劇趨勢,單日確診人數連續破萬,市民憂慮或爆發第六波疫情,防疫措施再度收緊,影響經濟。其次是整體投資氣氛轉差,恆生指數已跌近19,000點的邊緣,創近半年的低位,市場情緒被悲觀濃罩。第三,預期美國聯儲局再度加息,亦進一步影響投資氣氛。最後,發展商近期以低市價開盤,採取「求量不求價」策略,直接爲二手樓價帶來巨大的壓力。
布少明指出,須留意的是,反映業主信心的「美聯信心指數」亦持續下跌,最新報39.5點,按周跌1.7%,連跌8周,更創出自2019年10月初以來的近3年低位,由此可見業主對後市信心不足,部份減價求售,減價盤因而增加,導致信心指數持續下跌,預期樓價短期仍會持續調整。
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