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分析:煤價高位回落不可避免
格隆匯 09-19 21:45
格隆匯9月19日丨據鄂爾多斯煤炭網,能耗雙控的開展,疊加南方天氣降溫,民用電回落;本月下旬,沿海電廠日耗將有所回落。十月份國慶黃金週,部分工業企業停產放假,用電負荷回落,用戶採購壓力減輕。預計十月上旬,港口煤價將出現小幅回落。但受經濟大形勢趨好和冬儲備煤等因素影響,煤炭運輸依然繁忙,市場偏緊,煤炭供需兩旺仍爲主線; 產地方面,陝西榆林地區煤礦恢復生產,當地供應緊張局面略有緩解。而內蒙古鄂爾多斯地區少數煤礦因缺票停止生產,部分大礦以供應長協爲主,停止外銷。產地以化工及冬儲拉運爲主,價格持續偏強運行。貿易商發運成本雖在增加,但利潤已經出現,部分有實力的貿易商開始增加向港口發運的數量,促使鐵路進車增加。在進口煤價格高位且難以採購的情況下,電廠在積極採購國內煤炭,而“金九銀十”之下,工業用電負荷也在增加,煤炭供需形勢看好。 下半年以來,煤炭產能釋放的信號十分強烈,特別是八月份以來,僅內蒙古一地就有36座露天煤礦取得用地批覆,九月中旬後還將有更多優質煤炭產能陸續釋放。隨着供應的增多,以及電廠階段性搶運的結束,煤炭市場供需壓力減輕。預計十月份上旬,煤價將出現高位回落。
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