5月财新中国制造业PMI微升至52 通胀仍是重中之重
本文来自：财新网
2021年5月，中国制造业延续平稳恢复态势。6月1日公布的2021年5月财新中国制造业PMI（采购经理指数）较上月上升0.1个百分点至52，录得2021年以来最高值。
这一走势与国家统计局制造业PMI相反。统计局发布的5月制造业PMI录得51，较上月微降0.1个百分点，且呈现生产扩张加快而需求增长放缓的局面。
而财新中国制造业PMI分项指数中，5月制造业需求略强于供给。海内外需求齐增，支撑销售增长，5月新订单指数录得2021年内高点，新出口订单指数则继续攀升至2020年12月以来高点。企业反映，新接业务量增速为五个月来最强劲。
新业务量增长，带动产量进一步上升，但原材料短缺且价格高企对供给有所抑制。相比需求侧的高景气度，供给略显疲弱，5月生产指数较上月微降。
4月升入扩张区间的就业指数，5月出现回落。部分企业因强劲的市场需求而增加用工量，但也有部分企业受制于成本上涨，对增加用工仍持谨慎态度。两者相抵，5月就业指数仅略高于荣枯线。
已经持续数月的价格上涨仍在继续。5月制造业购进价格指数在扩张区间升至2017年1月以来最高点。调查企业普遍反映，原料成本上扬，推高了各种费用。企业普遍通过上调产品售价，将成本上涨压力传导给客户，导致出厂价格指数飙升至60以上，创2011年3月以来最高值。
鉴于需求持续改善，制造商大幅增加采购，5月供应商供应时间指数在收缩区间大幅下降。调查企业反映，投入品需求上升，但供应商存货量低，导致最近供应问题恶化。与此同时，库存数据显示原材料库存与成品库存皆轻微下降，原因普遍是在生产和交付订单过程中增加动用原有库存。
展望未来一年，制造业企业预期需求增长，加上新产品发布，产出将会随之扩张。不过，业界的乐观度已降至四个月低点，主要原因是担心成本上扬，以及疫情前景未明。
财新智库高级经济学家王喆表示，2021年5月制造业继续保持扩张，海内外需求强劲，供给稳步恢复，就业市场保持稳定，制造业景气度仍维持较高水平，后疫情时代经济恢复动能犹在。通胀问题仍是重中之重。5月国务院常务会议两次提及大宗商品价格上涨问题，一方面，通胀压力会制约货币政策空间，5月制造业出厂价格指数飙升，价格传导效应已经显现；另一方面，面对原材料价格上涨，部分企业开始囤货，部分企业则面临原材料短缺的困境，供应链受到明显影响。这意味着大宗商品的快速上涨已经对经济运行秩序造成影响。
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