大和:维持现代牧业(1117.HK)买入评级 目标价上调至3.2港元
大和发表研究报告指,该行与现代牧业(1117.HK)管理层举办业绩后路演,公司预计今年原奶价格按年增长5-6%,足以抵销单位饲料成本0.2-0.25元人民币的上涨,公司预计收购富源国际能降低饲料成本,并扩大生产规模。该行预计现代牧业2021-23年运营现金流和净利润将显著改善,并且看到原奶价格将在2021年继续回升,将其目标价由2.81港元上调至3.2港元,维持买入评级。
该行指,公司料将于2020-25年度产生110亿元的总资本开支,使其牛群规模和销量翻一番,其中约60%的资本开支来自于运营现金流和今年1月底的定增募资。考虑到牛群规模的增加,原奶单产的提高以及今年1月新股发行带来的每股收益摊薄约10%,该行将2021-22年度收入提高2-35%,每股收益提高7-15%。

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