电力设备新能源行业：成本下行需求提升，全球储能市场发展可期，维持“买入”行业评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
全球电化学储能潜力大，未来可期。据CNESA，2019年全球新增已投运电化学储能2.90GW，累计9.52GW；我国新增装机636.9MW，超越美国成为第一大国，累计装机1.70GW，占全球18%。据BNEF，新能源汽车的快速发展带动电池组成本迅速降低，2010-2019平均价格降幅高达86.8%。产品一体化、技术进步等因素进一步降低系统集成成本，2020、2025和2030年有望较2019年下降8%、38.7%和50.2%。储能应用场景丰富，发电侧提供快速调频响应，提升新能源并网，电网侧提供辅助服务，减少低效投资，用户侧与分布式能源配套并用于峰谷电价套利。随着储能系统成本快速下降，新能源快速发展带来的储能市场需求快速上升，储能大规模商业化应用趋势明朗。
财税政策叠加市场机制，美国储能市场锋芒初露。为推动可再生能源持续发展，各国相继出台政策对可再生能源配套储能进行规划。以美国为例，全国范围内的ITC补贴范围从“光伏+储能”扩展到独立储能系统，加州和纽约州又匹配了自发电激励计划（SGIP）、净电量结算制度以及纽约州的补贴制度。同时，各独立运营商明确了储能参与各类电力市场的规模要求及资格，并对各种服务提供市场交易机制。财税政策支持和电力市场机制促使美国2013-2019电化学储能累计装机容量增长近8倍。美国储能协会（ESA）计划到2030年储能总装机规模达100GW，以提高可再生能源在电网中运行的可靠性和适用性。
“十四五”或迎来政策利好期，国内储能市场蓄势待发。政策促进了我国新能源和新能源汽车产业的发展，在新能源发展的大背景下，储能相关政策有望持续出台。2020年已有涉及储能技术创新、标准规范、商业模式、财税补贴等多个维度的政策出台。近期，多部门表示或将上调2025年非化石能源占比至18%-20%，2030年达到20%-25%。“十四五”期间风电和光伏装机规模将维持增长态势，配套储能有望迎来快速增长期。假设到2025年我国非化石能源消费量占比为18%，储能配置率平均为10%，时间为2小时，则对应年均新增储能空间为19GWh。锂离子电池逐渐代替铅蓄电池成为5G基站储能首选，2025年预计累计新增基站493万个，对应储能容量60GWh，年均12GWh。
投资建议。以美国为首的发达国家有着系统的储能政策和完善的电力市场机制，储能已进入快速发展期。随着国家政策出台和电力市场完善，国内储能市场蓄势待发。关注电池供应商宁德时代、国轩高科、亿纬锂能等，储能逆变器供应商和储能系统集成商阳光电源、科华恒盛、固德威、国电南瑞等。
风险提示。产业政策变化，技术路线革新，国际贸易形势变化。
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