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陈茂波料本港第三季经济跌幅有改善 惟未摆脱衰退格局
阿思达克 10-27 09:40
财政司司长陈茂波发表网志表示,细看拉动本港经济的「三头马车」,本港第三季的经济或许已处於低位整固的阶段。内地经济持续迅速复苏可说是支持本港经济的主要力量,过去十年内地是本港最大的商品出口地和来源地,分别占本港商品出口54%及进口47%。

内地今年第三季经济增长4.9%,单计九月份以美元计价出口升9.9%、入口升13.2%。这两组数字也预示,本港第三季的外贸表现很大机会将跟随改善。虽然本港商品出口已连续六个季度呈负增长,惟跌幅已由五月份的7.4%收窄到八月份的2.3%,预计即将公布的九月份出口数字会呈可观改善。

他又指,在消费方面,私人消费已连跌四个季度,跌幅由去年下半年约3%,扩大到今年第二季的14.2%,虽然同期政府消费开支持续增加,增幅由约6%扩大到接近10%,但只能轻微缓减私人消费下跌对整体经济的影响。踏入九月,随着疫情有所放缓,社交距离措施逐步放宽,不少市民增加出行及消费,私人消费表现正逐步改善。至於固定资投方面,整体市场的态度仍然维持观望。

总体而言,按目前情况评估,已连续四个季度陷入萎缩的本港经济,目前仍未摆脱衰退的格局,惟第三季生产总值的跌幅,相比於今年头两季均下跌约9%的情况,应会有显着的改善,而这亦跟去年同期基数较低有关。在内地经济回复动力及本港的消费气氛逐步改善下,倘若本地的疫情持续受控,经济收缩的压力可望略为纾缓。

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