中国铁塔(00788.HK)：净利双位数增长，业务多元扩张，维持“买入”评级，目标价1.77 港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：1.77 港元
投资要点
三季度归母净利同比增 长 17.8%，塔类站均租户稳定增长。中国铁塔前三季度营业收入 602.2 亿元（人民币，下同）（+5.6%），EBITDA 440.2 亿元（+5.4%），EBITDA 率为 73.1%，同比下降 0.2pcts；归母净利润 45.6 亿元（+17.8%）。公司前三季度净利润率为 7.6%（+0.8pcts），第三季度净利润率为 7.8%；前三季度营收增长同比分别为 4.2%、5.4%、7.2%，随 5G基站建设速度和规模的加大，呈现加速提升。
塔类站址 202 万座，租户数 333.6 万户，塔类站均租户数提升至 1.65。公司塔类站址较 2019 年底增加 2.6 万座，租户数达到 333.6 万户，站均租户数 1.65 户/站，较 2019 年底增加 0.03 户/站。2020 年前三季度公司完成 34.5万个 5G 基站站址交付，97%以上 5G 需求通过共享已有站址资源完成。根据工信部的统计，2019 年全国 4G 基站总数达 544 万站， 5G 宏基站预计需要达到 4G 的 1.2-1.5 倍，整个 5G 周期宏基站总数将超过 650 万站，为长期增长提供支撑。
公司多点支撑业务格局加速形成，收入结构长期有望改善。公司前三季度塔类业务收入 548.0 亿元（+5.6%），室分业务收入 26.3 亿元（+36.9%），跨行业及能源业务收入 26.1.亿元（+92.8%）；公司整体非塔类业务收入（包括室分业务和跨行业及能源业务收入）占比从去年同期的 5.7%提升到8.7%，“一体两翼”战略加快形成，营收结构长期有望改善。
投资建议：放眼整个 5G 建设周期，公司未来的站址数伴随 5G 建设浪潮仍将保持稳定增长。我们采用 DCF 法进行估值，保守假设融资成本和投资现金流，下调目标价 4%至 1.77 港元，对应 2020 年 EV/EBITDA 为 6.1，距离 10 月 23 日收盘价有 37.2%的空间，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：1）运营商资本开支下降；2）5G建设不及预期；3）产品价格调整。
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