阿里渠道9月线上数据跟踪点评：白酒行业景气度提升显著，啤酒销量环比下降，给予“看好”评级
机构：浙商证券
评级：看好
报告导读
据阿里渠道数据显示，9 月酒水行业量价齐升，其中白酒行业景气度提升显著；啤酒行业销量环比下降明显。短期看，推荐关注 20Q3 业绩将超预期的标的：泸州老窖、*ST 舍得、水井坊、山西汾酒、酒鬼酒。投资要点 ? 白酒：景气度提升显著，茅台直营放量推动线上销售额高增阿里渠道数据显示 9 月白酒销售额、均价及销量分别同比增长 120.43%、89.21%、16.50%，行业景气度持续提升，动销环比回暖。9 月礼品需求及宴席需求（非即时性）增加为线上白酒业绩高增原因之一： 9 月飞天茅台直销渠道节前已平价投放超 33.5 万瓶，推动线上销量及均价分别同比提升 59.92%、134.02%，销售额的提升使其线上市占率从去年的 14.41%提升至 24.47%；在茅台批价较去年同期高的情况下，五粮液线上均价实现 87.28%的优秀增长；泸州老窖销量及均价分别同比增长 26.72%、55.46%，国窖表现优秀。次高端及区域酒方面，舍得、口子窖、今世缘收入均实现超 100%的增长，其中舍得销量及均价分别同比增长 162.33%、70.84%，量价均实现大幅提升，而洋河收 入增速不足 25%，分化较大。
啤酒：销量环比下降显著，均价较去年同期持平
随着天气转冷，啤酒行业热度环比下降，据阿里渠道的数据显示，9 月份啤酒的销量同比上升 30.40%，其中均价微增，同比提升 0.17%，量价齐升下销售额同比增长 30.62%；环比数据来看，啤酒销量环比下降 22.02%，销售额环比下降 21.25%。具体来看，燕京啤酒、福佳、百威和青岛啤酒销售额的同比增速位居前列，分别为 50.48%、42.14%、30.10%、23.59%；销量方面，福佳、燕京啤酒和青岛啤酒表现较好，同比增速分别为 87.93%、56.05%、21.89%；价格方面，百威、哈尔滨啤酒的表现较好，同比增速分别为 17.42%、14.94%。市占率方面，除燕京啤酒外，酒企市占率均出现下降，其中科罗娜市占率下降2.91%。
投资建议
白酒方面：建议关注消费升级叠加集中度提升两大逻辑，坚持 1+1>2 择股法则（净利润三年翻番+估值性价比高=未来获得超额收益确定性较高），我们认为白酒行业动销将继续环比改善，看好四季度酒企表现。短期看，推荐关注 20Q3业绩将超预期的标的：泸州老窖、*ST 舍得、水井坊、山西汾酒、酒鬼酒；中长期看，推荐关注业绩去定性较强的五粮液、贵州茅台、泸州老窖；未来三年利润有望翻番、估值具一定性价比的今世缘、洋河股份、金徽酒。另外，我们也关注基本面优秀，成长势头强劲的山西汾酒、古井贡酒等优质标的。
啤酒方面：啤酒行业结构升级持续，啤酒企业通过推出超高端产品以提升品牌力，我们看好啤酒短期业绩弹性及未来产品结构升级带来的势能，相关标的：青岛啤酒。
风险提示：疫情影响超预期；白酒动销恢复不及预期；食品安全风险。
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