永达汽车(03669.HK)：8月豪车销售快速增长，公司将继续受益豪车消费趋势，维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
8月豪华品牌乘用车销售快速增长，延续优于行业增长的销售势头。 根据中机中心汽车保险上牌数据，2020 年上半年，国内主流豪华品牌汽车销量达到131.2 万辆，同比仅下滑 7.4%，大幅优于行业；上半年豪华品牌市场份额达到 17.6%。豪华品牌汽车 8 月零售销量快速增长，同比增长 32%，延续优于行业增长的销售势头。
永达汽车新车销售稳健恢复，豪车销售结构持续优化。公司 1H20 新车销量为 81,974 辆，较同期下降 13.5%。公司主要代理豪华车品牌复苏趋势较好，Q2 季度豪华及超豪华品牌销售收入同比增长 17.5%；二手车交易业务恢复情况高于行业平均水平，上半年同比下降 2.7%，对比行业同比降幅 19.6%低16.9pct，具有较大竞争力。
公司调整经营策略，多角度打通盈利点。公司 1H20 汽车售后业务同比下降 6.7%，为降低疫情影响，公司调整经营战略，开展多种营销活动确保售后业务收入恢复，同时加强零部件采购成本控制。汽车金融业务也略有调整，上半年金融和保险业务收入同比下降 9.8%；上半年管理的资产余额为人民币 33.7 亿元，较去年年末39.9亿元下降 14.4%。
预计公司持续受惠于豪车强劲销量，维持“买入”评级。预计主要豪华品牌市场恢复速度较快，新车销量有望实现稳步增长，从而扩大售后及精品业务的客户基础。我们预计 2020-2022 年 EPS 分别为0.94/1.12/1.35 人民币元/股。综合考虑可比公司估值以及公司业务结构自身特点,我们给予公司合理估值 10 倍 2020E P/E，对应合理价值为 10.68 港元/股（汇率计算：港元兑人民币：1:0.881） ，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示。汽车销售、售后业务和汽车金融业务发展不及预期，消费需求不足导致汽车经销市场经营出现困境，疫情对业务运营的相关影响。
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