通信计算机行业中报总结：通信行业持续向好发展，计算机板块经营质量维持，给予“中配”评级
机构：西部证券
评级：中配
核心结论
新基建支撑通信行业业绩增长。2020年上半年，通信行业实现营业收入3366.29亿元，同比1.66%；净利润91.31亿元，同比+398.07%，其中5G设备、数据中心光模块等新基建领域龙头引领增长。板块整体盈利水平维持稳健， 2020年上半年整个通信行业毛利率为25.46%，较去年同期-0.98pct，净利率为4.07%，较去年同期提升3.76pct。现金流状况大幅改善，上半年经营性现金流净额为431.04亿元，同比大幅增长19.81%，主要是其中通信运营子板块主导。
软件服务业务收入端表现坚韧，计算机板块整体经营质量维持。2020H1计算机板块总体收入为3076.29亿元，同比增长6.64%，其中，IT服务和软件开发板块2020H1收入同比增长20%和9%；毛利率为26.71%，基本与去年同期持平，产品服务竞争力维持，但净利润率为4.07%，同比下降了近3pct，行业整体归净利润为113.38亿元，同比下降40.67%，同时，板块整体营运指标维持稳健，现金流表现亦有所好转，整体经营质量维持较好。
逐步走出疫情冲击，Q2 财务指标全面好转。随着疫情后复工复产、信息新基建投资加大，Q2 各板块经营业绩正快速恢复。其中，通信板块单季实现营收 1859 亿元，同比+8.03%，实现净利润 91.5 亿元，环比+239%，而去年同期为-26.6 亿。计算机板块整体归母净利润在 Q2为 125.87 亿元，同比增长 6.67%,相比 Q1 显著好转，行业经营活动现金净流入 101.94 亿元，同比环比大幅均好转。
投资建议：大规模基站建设高峰已经过去，同时板块估值过高催生的风险具有不确定性，因此调低评级，给予行业“中配”评级。 1）云基建基础设施长期发展趋势不改，重点推荐 IDC 龙头光环新网（300383.SZ），建议关注宝信软件（600845.SH）； 2）5G 网络建设快速推进，关注关键应用落地，重点推荐轨交 5G 应用龙头佳讯飞鸿（300213.SZ）；3）SaaS 模式加速渗透，重点推荐金山办公（688111.SH）、广联达（002410.SZ）；4）车联网：随着 5G 的不断应用、智能网联技术不断成熟，叠加车联网产业支持性政策频发、新基建领域投资力度持续加大，料车联网应用将加速落地。推荐关注鸿泉物联（688288.SH）、千方科技（002373.SZ）、锐明技术（002970.SZ）。5）金融科技：资本市场改革红利逐步释放，央行数字货币渐行渐近，金融科技面临发展新机遇，建议关注恒生电子（600570.SH）、宇信科技（300674.SZ）。
风险提示：5G网络建设进度不及预期；云计算基础设施需求不及预期；5G应用渗透率不及预期；SaaS行业发展不及预期；金融IT产业发展不及预期。
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