零售行业周报继续关注电商产业链,重点推荐跨境电商
机构:招商证券
评级:推荐
从中报情况看,二季度线下百货公司仍然承压,超市二季度收入增速较一季度有所下降,电商行业持续较高景气。建议继续关注电商产业链相关标的,A 股推荐星徽精密、苏宁易购,关注天泽信息,美/港股关注阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、中国有赞,同时推荐本地生活板块,关注美团点评。
超市:疫情后超市龙头公司顺应行业趋势加大对到家业务的投入,提高线上业务的效率和服务质量,降低后台成本,进一步加速超市数字化转型的步伐。从短期看,近期疫情逐步恢复后超市同店有所下降,但从长期看,本次疫情或加速农贸市场向商超转型,经营管理能力与供应链能力突出的商超将显著受益。重点推荐永辉超市、家家悦、步步高、红旗连锁,港股关注高鑫零售。
百货:7 月以来多家上市公司扎堆申请免税商品经营资质,百货公司凭借其人才储备和商场运营经验,可在有税商品和免税商品之间顺利转换,对免税行业原有的龙头企业形成分流。重点推荐重庆百货、王府井、天虹股份。
跨境电商:受益于需求旺盛、政策支持、配套基础设施不断完善等有利因素,跨境电商行业持续保持高速增长。2020 年 Q2“新冠”疫情在海外爆发以来,欧美国家整体线上销售呈现激增态势,加速跨境电商库存周转,ROE 提升,龙头公司显著受益。建议关注星徽精密、天泽信息、华凯创意。
国内电商:疫情后国内电商渗透率持续提升,电商公司中报表现亮眼,长期继续推荐苏宁易购,关注值得买,美股推荐电商平台京东,关注阿里巴巴、拼多多、唯品会,电商SAAS公司中国有赞。
休闲零食:休闲零食电商步入中速增长时期,三强格局稳定,线下布局积极推进。未来行业中短期来看是线上龙头的份额争夺,中长期来看是龙头竞争优势的比拼。短期来看,休闲零食电商行业空间依旧存潜力。我们长期推荐行业双龙头良品铺子、三只松鼠。
风险提示:疫情发展超出预期;宏观经济下行影响终端消费需求。
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