卓越教育集团(03978.HK)：聚焦强语文战略，发力大湾区拓展，给予“买入”评级，目标价4.8港元
机构：国元证券
评级：买入
目标价：4.8港元
投资要点
公司是华南地区市场份额第一的区域性K12课外教培龙头：卓越教育集团是广东省最大及全国第五大K12课培服务提供商，提供K12班辅、个辅、素质教育以及全日制备考课程。截至 19 年 12 月，公司在中国 10个城市共运营265个培训中心，主要分布在粤港澳大湾区，以广州为主。19年公司招生人次为70.9万名，营收达到18.3亿元。公司实施深耕华南、辐射全国的扩张策略，以强语文战略进行差异化竞争，全面加速教育OMO 布局，经营风格稳健。
广东省区位优势显著，语文学科地位提升，中考逐步实施省级统筹：广东省K12课外培训市场规模占全国之比达10.5%，规模CAGR达到 11%以上，参培率高于全国。持续的人口流入导致整体普高和本科录取率偏低，较高的人均可支配收入为K12课培服务提供较强的支付意愿和能力。 同时，高考改革与课改、小初高语文教材统一引导语文学科地位提升。省教育厅也逐步加强中考省级统筹，有利于公司放大语文优势，享集中度提升红利。
以强语文战略进行差异化竞争，高续读率和转化率凸显公司教学质量及口碑优势。教师留任率与研发投入体现内功，重点进攻深圳市场：卓越教育聚焦强语文战略，语文课程占营收之比达 30%。续读率持续提升，19 年达到83%（深圳校区约 80%），低价班转化率达 50%，处于业内较高水平，体现过硬的教学质量。运营方面，近三年年均研发投入达 1.5 亿以上，教师留任率提升至 85%，展现公司教研与管理内功的修炼。业务扩张方面，公司将加强大湾区网点渗透，重点拓展深圳市场，于深圳实行合伙人机制，调整组织架构。预计2021-22每年新开设培训中心数达 40-50家。
首次覆盖给予买入评级,目标价4.8港元：我们认为公司当前估值已反映其和全国双龙头的差距，以及与深圳区域性龙头的成长性差异。预计公司仍将持续稳健增长，20/21/22E归母净利润分别为 1.37/2.24/3.01 亿元，EPS 分别为 0.174/0.286/0.384 元，分别对应现价15.8/9.7/7.2x PE。我们给予公司 2021 年 15 倍目标 PE，对应目标价为 4.8港元，较现价55.2%的涨幅空间，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
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