澳博控股(00880.HK)：公司治理改善有望带动盈利能力提升，维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
公司股东层面矛盾有望理顺：北京时间5月26 日，澳博控股创始人何鸿燊博士逝世。公司股东层面的矛盾是公司在物业开发及物业运营能力上落后同行的重要原因。 自 17年 6月二房子女何超凤进入公司董事会起，已经开始逐步掌握公司管理的控制权，这也是18年至今公司盈利能力有所改善的原因之一。同时在19 年1 月份，二房和霍英东家族签订协议成为一致行动人，控制了澳博控股过半股权以及董事会。我们认为澳博控股在股东层面的矛盾有望逐步理清，从而推动公司治理能力改善。
公司治理改善以及上葡京项目开业将推动估值折扣收窄：自 10 年至今，公司 EV/EBITDA 估值中枢相较于澳门同行有约 30%的折扣，这主要是因为公司治理问题以及在路凼地区缺少物业所致。随着公司治理改善，将有可能改善公司的物业运营能力以及信息披露透明度。同时上葡京项目也预计在年内开业，这将有可能为公司带来一倍以上的EBITDA增长空间。同时公司也将从现有物业转移1000 名员工至上葡京，这将缓解现有物业的人员冗余问题，压缩现有物业费用率。因此我们预计未来公司相较于同行的估值折扣将有望收窄。
关注公司周年大会董事选举结果：四姨太梁安琪与现任CEO苏树辉的董事任期将于今年届满，因此 6 月 9 日公司周年大会的董事重选结果非常重要。此外四姨太私人拥有的葡京人项目未来与上葡京项目如何合作，以及现有的卫星赌场在 22 年赌牌重新投标后如何处理，也是澳博控股面对的主要不确定性。
预测 20-22 年 EBITDA 分别为 16.67 亿、56.43 亿、75.63 亿港元。公司治理改善有助于公司估值折扣收窄，同时上葡京项目开业后将带动公司 EBITDA 大幅增长。维持公司合理价值 9.4港元/股，买入评级。
风险提示。上葡京项目延期的风险；外汇管制收紧的风险；新冠疫情持续时间超出预期的风险。
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