昆仑能源(00135.HK):被低估的天然气销售储运龙头,给予“买入”评级,目标价9.50港元
机构:国元证券
评级:买入
目标价:9.50港元
投资要点
中石油旗下天然气终端销售平台:
公司是中国石油天然气股份有限公司控股的国际性能源公司,业务主要包括天然气销售、天然气管道、LNG加工与储运、原油勘探与生产四大板块,分布于中国31个省区市。2018年,公司销售天然气220亿立方米,销售液化石油气700万吨,LNG接收站接卸能力1,900万吨。
资源优势显著,未来销气量增长可期:
2018年10月,中石油优化调整天然气销售管理体制,将天然气批发销售与终端零售业务实行一体化管理。2019年上半年,公司销售天然气126亿立方米,同比增长20.3%,其中城燃业务增速达25.2%,处行业领先。预计未来公司将借助母公司资源优势和协同效应,通过并购等多种方式增强终端市场拓展力度,未来销气量增速有望保持行业领先水平。
LNG接收站规模优势明显:
目前我国已投产21座LNG接收站,总产能7,987万吨/年,公司旗下3座LNG接收站总产能占比达23.8%,仅次于中海油(已建成)的3,440万吨/年。此外,公司京唐LNG接收站应急调峰工程与江苏LNG扩建工程预计分别于2020年及2021年投产。建成后,公司三座接收站产能将达2,600万吨,规模优势进一步扩大,持续抢占国内LNG接收市场。
首次覆盖给予买入评级,目标价9.50港元:
我们预计公司2019-2021年EPS分别为0.71/0.83/0.94元,当前股价对应PE为8.8/7.5/6.6倍,明显低于燃气行业平均估值,我们给予公司2019年12倍目标PE,对应目标价为9.50港元,较现价有37%的上涨空间,首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。

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