金界控股(3918.HK)：赌场独家经营权延长至2045年，维持“买入”评级，目标价14.7港元
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
目标价：14.7港元
核心观点
柬埔寨皇家政府将公司赌场独家经营权延长10年至2045年。据公司公告，11月19日柬埔寨皇家政府与公司全资子公司签订协议，将子公司在柬埔寨金边方圆200公里范围内赌场独家经营权延长10年至2045年届满。这主要是考虑到公司投资35亿美元开发的Naga3项目在完工后，将创造数以千计的工作机会，并且带动柬埔寨游客人次继续快速增长。作为对价，子公司将在协议签订后支付1000万美元，并在2036-45年每年支付300万美元予柬埔寨皇家政府。
这表明柬埔寨政府对金界对柬埔寨旅游业的带动作用表示肯定。据公司公告，旅游业是柬埔寨经济增长的主要推动力，在2017年对柬埔寨GDP的贡献达到13%。而公司对柬埔寨旅游业的增长作出重要贡献。2018年公司贡献了约29%当地旅游业GDP的增长及约1.3%的GDP。而在Naga3项目建成后，Nagaworld将成为亚太地区大型博彩胜地之一，有望继续带动柬埔寨游客人次保持快速增长。
赌场独家经营权延长后将提升Naga3项目的回报率：Naga3项目资本开支计划为35亿美元，预计将于2025年9月落成。考虑到Naga3项目开发成本高昂，原协议规定独家经营权至2035年届满，那么Naga3项目的垄断经营期限只有10年。但是在独家经营权延长10年后，Naga3期在开业后将拥有20年的独家经营权，这有助于提升项目的投资回报率。
19-21年EBITDA分别为6.94亿、8.94亿和10.66亿美元。我们认为公司将继续受益于柬埔寨博彩业宽松的监管环境，东南亚经济增长和柬埔寨旅游业的快速发展，公司在亚洲地区博彩业的市场份额有望继续提升。我们维持股票合理价值14.7港元，维持买入评级。
风险提示。地区间竞争加剧的风险；柬埔寨制定中的新赌博法具有不确定性。
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