广发证券：携程网(CTRP)Q3经营利润增长靓丽 维持“买入”评级
广发证券发布研报，携程网(CTRP)三季度营收增速放缓，经营利润率显著提升。公司19Q3实现营收105亿元，同比增长12%，在宏观经济压力和部分出境游目的地游客人数下降冲击下，增速较前两个季度有所放缓。Non-GAAP净利润为22.6亿元，同比增长30.6%。盈利能力方面：三季度毛利率为79%，同比基本持平；Non-GAAP经营利润率为25%，同比提升5pct，表现亮眼。费用方面：三季度扣除股权激励后的Non-GAAP研发/销售/管理费用率分别为25%/23%/6%，同比分别变动+1pct/-6pct/持平。三季度销售和市场费用同比下降8%，主要是市场营销活动相关费用减少。
酒店、机票、自由行短期承压，商旅业务增长表现靓丽。分业务来看，Q3酒店业务营收41亿元，同比增长14%，较Q1/Q2有所放缓。主要是受到行业景气下行以及香港酒店预订量价下滑影响。交通业务方面：Q3票务预订营收37亿元，同比增长3%，受到国际机票降价及出境游需求影响，较前两个季度增速明显放缓。自由行方面：Q3自由行实现营收16亿元，同比增长19%，主要得益于公司线下门店和低线级城市渗透率的提升。Q3商旅业务实现营收3.4亿元，同比增长26%，较上半年有所提速。主要系商旅用户的增长和高变现率的酒店等占比提升带来的结构性改善。与TripAdvisor达成战略合作，国际化战略稳步推进。三季度公司国际化战略持续推进。剔除大中华区后，携程境外酒店营收同比增长50%，维持此前高增速。Trip.com国际机票预定量连续12个季度保持三位数增长。2019年11月，公司宣布与TripAdvisor达成战略合作协议。
TripAdvisor是全球OTA龙头，截止2019Q3，覆盖全球49个市场，拥有860万个住宿、餐厅、自由行、航班和游轮资源。此次与TripAdvisor达成合作，有助于在旅游内容、资源、数据方面推进携程国际化战略。投资建议：四季度出境游客流结构性波动，以及国际机票价格下降等因素影响将持续，根据公司业绩指引，19Q4收入同比增长8-13%。考虑到携程不断拓展国际化业务和低线城市业务，交易规模有望持续增长，控费水平持续优化，未来盈利能力有望持续提升，预计19~21年Non-GAAP净利润分别为57.2亿元、71.0亿元和90.8亿元，采用11月17日美元兑人民币即期汇率1美元折合7.01元人民币，每ADS对应的Non-GAAP盈利分别为1.39、1.72和2.20美元/ADS。维持公司合理价值35.3美元/ADS的观点不变，对应2020年合理P/E估值为20.5倍。维持“买入”评级。
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