中芯国际(00981.HK)：国产化替代促进产能利用率提升，维持“买入”评级
机构：国信证券
物联网消费电子业务带动Q3营收增长3.2%超指引
2019年Q3营收8.16亿元，环比增3.2%，高于指引2%。不含已经出售的阿扎为8寸厂，环比增6.1%。其中，物联网消费电子业务增长16%。2019Q3毛利1.69亿元，环比增加12.3%，同比减少2.7%。2019年Q4业绩指引：收入环比增加2%~4%，不含Q3已经出售的阿扎为工厂收入环比增加4%~6%,毛利率23%~24%之间。
国产化替代促进产能利用率提升至97%，毛利率提升至21%
公司营收增长的同时，Q3毛利率上升至20.8%，收入和毛利率双升，说明公司业务强劲，不是通过降价来提升收入。Q3产能利用率提升至97%，远高于Q2的91.1%。符合我们2019年11月8日发布报告的预判：因为半导体代工国产化趋势越来越明显，中芯国际作为大陆半导体代工龙头将明显受益。
中国大陆&香港收入占比提升60.5%
2019Q3中芯国际的来自中国大陆和香港的收入占比提升至60.5%，符合我们之前的预判，公司的产能和工艺技术能够承接上游芯片设计公司的代工订单转移。公司第四季度来自中国大陆和香港的收入占比将继续提升。
受益于国产化替代，维持“买入”评级
大陆半导体产业要崛起，从设计到代工、封测都要自主化，大陆芯片设计公司正在将代工转向国内，公司作为大陆代工厂龙头明显受益。预计2019~2021年收入分别为31.32亿美元/36.04亿美元/40.59亿美元，增速分别为-6.8%/15.1%/12.6%，2019~2021年利润分别为1.39亿美元/1.84亿美元/2.26亿美元，增速3.9%/32.8%/22.5%。
公司作为半导体代工的技术跟随着，技术节点突破是关键，应该先看公司的技术，再看收入，最后才是利润。短期受益于Norflash代工需求，中长期看好国产化替代大背景下的大陆代工厂崛起。综合考虑，公司合理PB估值范围为1.6~1.8倍，公司合理估值14.1~15.8港元，维持业绩预测和“买入”评级。
风险提示
14nm工艺进展不及预期，全球产能松动，影响公司毛利率。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
