旅游休闲消费升级系列专题之餐饮行业篇(一)：餐饮市场空间可观，火锅最具成长性
机构：万联证券
行业核心观点： 我国餐饮市场规模庞大，随着城镇化率的提高以及消费升 级，餐饮市场成长空间可观。但目前餐饮类上市公司数量 稀缺，随着供应链体系的完善和管理能力的提升，餐饮行 业必然走向品牌连锁化，我们判断未来有望看到更多优质 的餐饮企业实现上市。在细分市场中，火锅是目前市场规 模最大，也最具成长性的赛道。建议重点关注餐饮龙头企 业，尤其是火锅龙头企业。
投资要点：
⚫ 我国餐饮市场规模庞大，行业蕴含成长空间。受益于城 镇化及消费升级趋势，我国餐饮行业增速高于社零总额 增速。2018 年全年餐饮收入 4.3 万亿元，同比增长 7.8%。预计随着城镇化率的提高，城镇居民消费性支出 中外出就餐比例也随之提高，同时伴随着我国居民消费 升级，餐饮行业收入仍存在较大上升空间，粗略估算， 预计我国餐饮行业还有两倍成长空间。但我国餐饮市场 真正的大企业还不够多，目前我国餐饮业主板上市有 3 家企业，新三板有 20 家企业，港股有 6 家内地企业。
⚫ 我国餐饮行业品类丰富，火锅市场份额最大。按菜系分 类，可将我国餐饮市场分为中式餐饮、西式餐饮及其他 餐饮。按餐饮业态分类，也可以将我国餐饮市场分为正 餐、火锅餐饮、快餐、团餐和西餐及休闲餐饮五个类 别。中式餐饮是我国餐饮市场的最大组成部分，2017 年市场份额高达 80.5%，火锅在中式餐饮市场的市场份 额最大，2017 年市场份额为 13.7%。
⚫ 细分市场经营指标对比分析，火锅占据明显优势。从成 长性、互联网化、人员流动性、坪效、盈利能力等指 标，对细分市场进行对比。其中，火锅市场优势明显， 成长性、坪效、净利率等指标均最高；团餐成为餐饮界 黑马，成长性高，但人员流动性最高，盈利能力最低； 正餐成长性居中，单店营业面积小型化趋势明显，人员 稳定性最强，但坪效最低；西餐及休闲餐饮成长性垫 底，其他指标居中；快餐成长性较低，但依托外卖市场 的爆发，互联网化趋势最明显。
⚫ 风险提示：1、市场竞争加剧风险。2.餐饮企业经营风 险。3.成本上升风险。4.食品安全风险。
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