摩通:降恒生(0011.HK)评级至“减持” 目标价大降29%至142港元
摩根大通发表报告指,香港社会不稳没有缓和迹象,有关的不利影响已转化至经济数据恶化,包括在楼价、零售消费、企业情绪及就业等方面。摩通对香港银行的资产、流动性和贷款增长进行的压力测试显示,恒生银行(0011.HK)
及东亚银行(0023.HK)
在盈利及资本方面或会面临更大的下行风险。报告对香港银行应用相同的压力测试假设,包括住宅楼价下跌30%、零售租金下跌30%及写字楼租金下跌40%等,将导致按揭及相关物业贷款的贷款成本及风险加权资产(RWA)上升,以及投资物业的市场价值损失(MTM loss)增加。
摩通表示,压力测试显示香港银行于明年的盈利有24%至45%的潜在下行,2021年则可能有39%至67%的下降,而恒生在同业中料将面对最大的压力,因其对净息差的杠杆最高,而且集中于港元计价的投资组合;另面对第二大压力的为东亚,因其盈利基础较小。摩通估计,由于净息差收缩、手续费收入减少及信贷成本上升,港银在今年下半年的经营利润将按半年下降。该行下调对恒生的股份评级,由“
中性
”降至“
减持
”,目标价由200港元大降29%至142港元;东亚评级则维持“
减持
”,目标价由20.6港元降至17.2港元。在香港银行中,摩通选择性看好中银香港(2388.HK)
,评级“
增持
”,目标价37.8港元降至30.6港元,因其在压测下仍具有足够的资本状况,以维持介乎5.5%至6%的较高股息收益率。
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